The Dynamic Evolution Analysis Of Trade Advantage: Based On Logistic Mapping

Assuming the trade advantage is interpreted as the proportion of a country’sexports of the world’s total imports, then the trade process can be described as aLogistic mapping and the value of it’s control parameters can be obtained from thehistorical data of trade. The value of control parameters determines the evolution trackof a country’s trade advantage. The calculations of China’s historical data of tradeshow that the value of control parameters of steel, machinery and transport equipment,office and telecom equipment, automobile, textile, transport service and otherindustries lie in between1and3,which means the trade advantages of these industrieswill be in a stable state after several periods. But the time they take to reach the stablestate differs and depends on the initial value of trade advantage. The analyticalconclusion of this paper shows the export advantage of steel and automobileindustries are in a state of decay, while other industries’ will still be on the rise. Anyintervention in the course of trade will cause uncertain consequences,assuming thetrade process is referred to as a iterative process. Any kind of tiny disadvantage in thecourse of trade amplified after many iterations may lead to complete deviation fromthe established policy goals of the trade process.