The Duration Of Export And The Analysis Of The Influencing Factors In Manufacturing Industry

Since the policy of reform and opening up, China has established itself as animportant trading power and therefore acquired the status as the world’s factory formanufacturing. However, since2008financial crisis, the external demand marketsuffered a crushing defeat, while the domestic labor cost kept rising and the"demographic dividend" is about to run out. Meanwhile, the developed countries,represented by America and Germany, take the lead in recovering from the crisis andput forward the slogan of rebuilding the manufacturing industry. At the same time, theemerging countries, represented by India and Mexico, are using their cost andresources advantage to vigorously develop their manufacturing industry. China’sexport trade, especially the export of manufacturing industry, is facing anunprecedented crisis. Most of the existing researches explore the issue from thenational perspective, only taking China itself as the object of study. Since there arefew studies on transnational comparison, our understanding and knowledge of crisis isslightly biased. In addition, this crisis is not only reflected in the aspect of totalreduction, but also the incremental volatility. Most of the existing paper explored thetrade issues from the total amount perspective. However, this paper, based on themicroscopic trade data, starts from dynamic changes of trade relations to study andcompare the characteristics and related influencing factors of the duration of trade ofmajor global exporters in manufacturing industry, which explores the internationalstatus and stability of China’s manufacturing industry from the perspective ofduration.The study finds that, in terms of the characteristics of trade duration of majorglobal exporters in manufacturing industry, China has generally been in the sameposition with the traditional manufacturing power like Germany, America and Japanjudged by the capability of maintaining the trade relationship of manufacturing export.However, when it comes to the cumulative size and survival function patterns of thesurvival rate in various time intervals of the export of manufacturing products, thesituation is not optimistic. Firstly, the accumulated survival rate of Chinese export inmanufacturing industry decreases significantly. Secondly, the inclination of thesurvival function of Chinese manufacturing export shows little change during thewhole time and its slowdown form is not obvious after a certain threshold. It illustrates that the stability of Chinese export relationship in manufacturing industryis poor. Compared with other countries, even those long-established trade relationsare facing great risk of failure. In terms of the influencing factors, for all sampledcountries, both the characteristic variables of export target countries and product levelsignificantly affect the duration of trade of manufacturing industry. However, certainexplanatory variables of different sampled countries impose different influences onthe duration of trade in manufacturing industry. In the end, target policyrecommendations are proposed.