The Food Supply Situation Simulation Analysis Based On Logistic Model

In this paper, from the national, provincial and county scales sorting, correction for food in our country the actual production. Classified by different source for food production, will be different according to different quantity of heat, protein, fat content of food points, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery four analyze ecosystem. Then with different stages of Chinese food, food consumption of well-off, rich in nutrition, food supply situation for full analysis to our country. In the process of analyzing the food supply, found food supply situation conforms to the Logistic curve trend in our country. And according to the distribution of soil, climate change, the natural information, such as solar radiation of simulated to solve China’s largest food supply situation, get the largest food supply in the future. More than30years in our country food statistics and the biggest future food supplies in China, using Logistic model for simulating the year of China’s future food supplies.Since the1970s, the relevant researchers analyze the situation of food supply in China. Started from the resource situation in our country, in1995the world observations, director of the brown published who will feed China, contains foreign researchers in our country’s arguments against brown was studied, and with China can be in the future to meet their own food supply arguments to reply. But with the further development of our country industrialization level and the advancement of urbanization, and the deterioration of the global climate, the temperature increases, the decrease of groundwater, the increase of natural disasters, the factors such as population increase food supply brought great impact to our country.This paper collected the agricultural ecological system of the main food source, including agriculture, forestry, animal husbandly and fishery four big industryy more than40major food were analyzed. Analysis includes output, yield, specific gravity, trends, etc., through the analysis to our country food yield per unit, total all keep good growth trend, according to the central1.8billion mu of arable land red line, the control of food production in our country in the future will also to be able to keep. Through the province, county of spatial analysis, and statistical data points on the spatial distribution of the food supply situation analysis in our country. Analysis results show that the distribution of food supply situation in our country in line with population distribution characteristics in our country, but in some parts of food production can’t guarantee the population the obvious regional food shortages.Food supply simulation study of main methods to sum up experience model and mechanism model. This article through to further supplement of empirical model, combined with our country over the past60years, soil moisture, rainfall, soil temperature information of terrestrial ecosystems in China’s largest food supply was simulated to solve, simulate the primary productivity in terrestrial ecosystem in China’s largest food supply capacity. Through the comparison with the statistical data of China’s food, on the spatial distribution of basic conform to the situation of our country’s food distribution. From simulation results, the biggest ecosystem supply capacity is much higher than now food output in our country, our country resource utilization has much room to improve. In the area the comparison process, found that parts of the ecological utilization degree is beyond the biggest ecosystem can supply scope, working in these areas should pay attention to the protection of the ecological and regional ecological compensation.In our country’s food supply statistical analysis, trend analysis showed that food output in line with the trend of Logistic curve. Combined with prior experience, the food is bound to peak output restrictions exist. On the basis of this analysis, we chose to use Logistic model to simulate the situation of China’s food supply. Select the model to simulate the experience of the largest terrestrial ecosystems of the food supply, as the maximum limit of the food supply, as the gradient growth data statistics, the gradient of the Year as a time of food supply in future years to simulate. First, use the above data for Logistic model to solve the unknown parameters, and then validated statistical data, while meeting finalized within the error range of the model form, last used to determine the model year of the food supply situation for the future of simulation. This paper simulates the country over the next10years,20years,30years, the food supply situation, the analysis showed that food can supply our2020population of18.2million in2030to supply food for the population of2.03billion, in2040the supply of food to the population number of2140000000. Through the simulation results analysis, we found our food supply will be sustained over an extended period increasing trend in the coming years, and not because of China’s population reached a peak before because of food shortages caused by the world food situation dependent.Through to our country in previous years, the analysis of the statistical data, the simulation results of China’s largest food supply ability and the simulation analysis of the year of the future food supply situation, on the time gradient throughout understanding food supply situation in our country. Results show that won’t appear the situation of food in our country, and after the peak population in our country, our country’s food output will also provided food for the world food output.