Trade Deficit Of China Maritime Service And Warning Mechanism Research

Since"11th five-year plan",China’s service trade have developedsteadily,China’s trade in services increased from$157.1billion in2005to$419.1billion in2011,exports and imports ranked the fourth and the third in the worldrespectively.But we can also see that China’s service trade for many years has been ina deficit state,and the maritime service industry,as a basis of trade in services and playthe supporting role,is the main source of deficit.This situation is not conducive to thedevelopment of service trade in China,indicates the maritime service trade inimbalance,restricts the balance of international service trade in our country,notconducive to China’s economic security.Against this situation,analyze China’smaritime service trade deficit,discuss its economic effect,and build the early warningmechanism,monitoring the related data changes at any time,these measures for controlthe trade imbalance of Chinese maritime industry in a reasonable scope,promote thehealthy development of maritime service trade and to maintain the industrialsafety,realize the sustainable and fast development of shipping service trade in Chinahave very important practical significance.This article analyzes the trade deficit of our maritime service trade and buildearly warning mechanism,through the result of the early warning to deal withmaritime services trade deficit.The main framework of article can be summarized asfour parts,the first part briefly explain the present situation and influence of maritimeservice trade deficit,defining the relevant concepts,comprehensive domestic andforeign scholars on trade in services,early warning mechanism and the research of BPneural network,etc,put forward the research content of the paper,then classifies therelated theories, make the study on this basis;The second part is the current developsituation of maritime service trade and analyze the cause of deficit.Firstly,summarized the present situation of maritime service trade,the data of calendaryear shows that China’s maritime trade in services have varying degrees of growth inaddition to2009affected by the economic crisis,and growth scope is mostly stayabove twenty percent,maritime service trade is also an important part of transportationservice trade,in recent ten years the proportion of service trade in transportation isalways more than fifty percent,at the same time,behind the high speeddevelopment,maritime service trade,as a main component of the transportation servicetrade,has become the main source of transportation service trade deficit.And thenanalyzes the causes of our country maritime services trade deficit,from high degree ofopenness,goods trade growth and capacity shortage,the enterprise itself to explain,findthat high degree of openness lead to insufficient protection of maritime enterprise inour country,more competitive foreign maritime enterprises enter into China,result inserious impact on maritime services,transport service trade in our country can’t satisfythe strong demand for trade in goods,the capacity is insufficient,can only rely on foreign capacity to make up for,the small scale of enterprise,low competitiveness,poorservice awareness and weak profitability.These factors led to the present situation ofour maritime services trade deficit for a long time;The third part includes chapter3and chapter4,mainly about the construction of early warning model.First of all,give abrief introduction to the basic principle of BP neural network,based on theparticularity of maritime service trade in China and the superiority of the BP neuralnetwork model,to clarify the selection intention and applicability of thismodel.Secondly,establish the index system of BP neural network model.Based on theprinciples of index selection, select key factors which cause our country maritimeservices trade deficit,those are the proportion of cargo transported by Chinese ship,thegoods trade growth rate,trade openness and trade competition advantage index,on thisbasis,select exchange rate,real GDP growth rate,maritime service trade internationalmarket share,competitive advantage index,export growth rate and relativecomparative advantage index join the index system of the early warningmechanism,and to explain each index respectively.Once more,using the three deltaprinciple which are widely used in academic world,determine the warning limit andwarning interval. Finally,empirical analysis was carried out on the early warningmodel,select data from2001to2011,after normalization processing, using SPSSsoftware to determine the output node, using BP neural network training andinspection,and then test the evaluation result of maritime trade in services in2012,theresults showed2012maritime service trade in our country is in a "safe" level;Last partis on the basis of the analysis before,in order to maintain our country maritime tradeservice healthy and orderly,countermeasures and suggestions are put forward fromthree aspects:government,industry associations and enterprises,including thetransformation of government function,strengthen infrastructure construction, industryassociations play a positive role,enterprise train high quality talent, improve servicequality and achieve scale economies through strategic restructuring.