Credit Risk Evaluation Of Farmer Specialized Cooperatives

In recent years, with the accelerating pace of building socialist new rural areas,Farmer Specialized Cooperatives as the agriculture modernization organization arealso developing rapidly. At the same time, Farmer Specialized Cooperatives’ laws arenot perfect, operation is not standard, the relevant data is difficult to obtain, themarket risk of finance is high, and the transaction cost is higher, which are severelyrestricted the financing of cooperatives, so explore the credit risk of FarmerSpecialized Cooperatives is particularly necessary. This paper is based on the newclassical cooperative theory and expected income theory, and the cooperative systemas the research object, constructing the credit risk evaluation system of commercialbank to farmer specialized cooperatives, and using impulse model to evaluate thecooperatives’ credit risk, in order to find an effective evaluate way to commercialbanks for cooperative finance, and provide a reference for policy makers tounderstand cooperatives credit risk problem objectively, so that policies to improvethe level of cooperative finance, reduce the risk of credit.In the beginning of the paper, a brief review and assessment of related researchesin the domestic and abroad was written about the Farmer Specialized Cooperativesand credit risk, and then introduces the new classical cooperative theory, expectedincome theory and system theory. And based on the analysis of features of FarmerSpecialized Cooperatives and credit risk characteristics, on the basis of based on theexisting research literature on the factors affecting farmers’ cooperatives to credit riskof the sort. And then to the existing main methods of credit risk evaluation: expertanalysis, Logistic regression model, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method andartificial neural network analysis method has carried on the review, found that theexisting research methods in the study of the Farmer Specialized Cooperatives eachhave their own shortcomings. Through the introduction and analysis of the impulseprocess model, found that this method in the study of cooperative credit risk ways toovercome the above problem：the subjectivity is strong, the data is difficult to obtain.According to the existing research literature, this paper selects the cooperativessystem’s eight major influencing factors: production area, production capacityutilization, production costs, prices of agricultural products, agricultural production，cooperatives revenue and net income of per household member, using the actual research cooperative cases and data, applied impulse model for cooperative system toverify the credit risk of issues, and using agricultural prices to impact of cooperativesystem, the empirical results are obtained.Through empirical research found that the change of agricultural prices hasdifferent degrees of impact on other factors in cooperative system, is has importanteffect for the credit risk of the cooperative system, and the stability of cooperativesystem and cooperative credit risk has a reverse relationship, namely cooperativesystem more stable, cooperative credit risk is smaller, and the different characteristicsof different cooperatives to credit risk. Then in view of the research conclusion putforward reasonable Suggestions: Commercial bank to cooperatives credit riskevaluation should not only concerned about the financial risk evaluation index, alsopay attention to factors such as agricultural prices; Commercial Banks should providethe different finance support base on the characteristics of cooperative; Thegovernment should further improve the agricultural product price protectionmechanism, to reduce the credit risk of Farmer Specialized Cooperatives, therebypromoting Farmer Specialized Cooperatives successfully obtain financing fromfinancial institutions.The main innovation of this article is using the impulse process model to findthat Cooperatives with different characteristics have different credit risks. EdibleFungus Cooperatives have smaller credit risks than Pig cultivation ProfessionalCooperatives because of less influence by natural disasters, shorter product life cycle,and smaller fluctuations of market price.