A Research On The Adjustment Of China’s Export Product Structure Under Energy Constraint

China’s economy has created a remarkable "Chinese Miracle" since1978, and thetotal volume of China’s economy experienced a rapid growth. As the main drivingforce of China’s economic development, export trade was also a miracle. The totalvolume of Chinese exports growed from$98billion in1978to$20487billion in2012,and the average growth rate reached17.1%. World ranking of Chinese export traderised to the1st place from32nd, which has made China to become a great exporttrading country attracting the attention of the whole world. However, China is still nota powerful trading country, especially its’ energy-intensive products, high pollutingproducts and resource-intensive products still occupy a large proportion of total exportratio. As terrible consequences, China not only provided cheap natural resources toimport countries at the expense of its domestic resource for years, but also triggeredtrade war, such as anti-dumping and technical barriers. Therefore, it is very importantfor us to know how to adjust the export structure of China under its energy constraintfrom the perspective of technology progress. Many studies indicated that technologicalprogress plays an important role in the adjustment of export product structure underenergy constraint. Whethere technological progress promotes adjustment of China’sexport product structure or not? What’s the mechanism of the effect? This article willstudy these issues and hope to get some solutions.At first, this paper conducted a multi-level and multi-dimensional LiterauterReview of energy constraint, the structure of export commodity and technologyprogress. Based on Polarization Effect, Steady Adjustmet Effect and Short BoardEffect, this paper also conducted a Mechanism Analysis on the effect of energyconstraint on the adjustment of China’s export product structure; based onComparative Advantage, Industrial Structure Adjustment and Quality Improvement,this paper also conducted a Mechanism Analysis on the effect of technologicalprogress on the adjustment of China’s export product structure. Then this paperconducted a Status Analysis of China’s energy constraint from the perspective of thegap between energy supply and demand, energy consumption China structure andenergy efficiency; a Status Analysis of the adjustment of China’s export productstructure from the perspective of the export total volume and the structure of exportproduct; a Status Analysis of China’s technologial progress from the perspective of technology import, technology diffusion and science and technology innovation. Baseon these, this paper conducted an Empirical Research of the long-term effect andshort-term effect of energy constraint on the adjustment of China’s export productstructure; an Empirical Research of the effect of technologial progress on theadjustment of China’s export product structure though Cointegration Analysis, VARModel Regression Analysis, Impulse Response Analysis, Variance Decomposition andGranger Causality Test.The empirical research found that firstly besides SITC4(a kind ofenergy-intensive product) there’s no long-term and steady relationship between energyconstraint and other products; then constraint does negative impulses on the adjustmentof China’s export product structure. Secondly, technology import has a negative effecton the export of primary products and manufactured goods; both technology diffusion andscience and technology innovation has a posive effect on the export of primary productsand manufactured goods. Even technologial progress promote the adjustment of China’sexport product structure, but it is still not the Granger reason of the adjustment ofChina’s export product structure, which indicates that technologial progress and themarketization of technologial progress is still at a low level, and technologial progressis still not the main driving force of the adjustment of China’s export product structure.At last, this paper gives policy suggestion about how to adjust China’s exportproduct structure under energy constraint through technologial progress. It include：exploite traditional energy scientifically, exploite new and clean energy, improveenergy utilization efficiency; Increase the R&D expenditure, Strengthen themarketization technological progress; reduce the export of energy-intensive productsand increase the export of high-techology products, etc.