Dynamic Rates Studyof Basic Medical Insurance Of Urban Workers Under The Background Of Population Aging

The aging of population is a trend during the economic development in the world. China became the society of aging of population from2010,and the trend will continue to expand in the future,which will bring serious challenge to the system of the basic medical insurance.Therefore, it is very important to study dynamic rate of the basic medical insurance of urban workers under the background of population aging.The paper researched tentatively the dynamic rates taking insurance actuarial science and statistics as theory guide. First, the author analyzed the developing situation of aging of the population in the country including the following three aspects:the basic situation and the development characteristics of aging of the population, and the reason of rapid development of aging of the population,and predicted the number of the aged people in the coming100years in the same time; Secondly, the author analyzed the effects of aging of the population to the basic medical insurance system of urban workers from collection-payment of pool fund. Finally, it constructed medical model and dynamic demonstration of basic medical insurance rates of urban workers. The main conclusions are as follows:1. China entered into the society of aging of the population in2010,and the trend will continuely expand in future, wich will reach the peak in2060. the proportion of population who is65and above will reach26.1%.An important factor for rapid development of the aging of the population is the dropping of rate of birth and death, the key factor lies in the dropping of fertility rate.2. The challenge to system of basic medical insurance of urban worker reflects as follows:on the one hand,the trend will exlarge the proportion of the retires to the workers in employee,which will make less income for the unified fund relatively; On the other hand, due to the ageing and disability and high rate of death, it consumes higher than young people, which make the expendixture of the unified fund speed up.3.contructing the dynanmic rate of the basic medical insurance is benefical to balance and sustained development of the unified fund.we can predict the data to use time series analysis method,such as the ratio of the employees and the retires of the basic medical insurance,the contibution base and the expecditure of the unified fund,then can establish the rate of basic medical insurance in next year.