| Impact factor is an important quality indicator of scientific and technical journals in citation analysis. It can reflect the academic influence of journals. With more and more use, it plays an increasing role in our work.Therefore knowing the tendency of impact factor in advance can do researchers a big favor.Grey system is an incomplete information system, it can discover the variation of the system by using existing data to analyze the relevance of various factors and the measure of the number and using grey data mapping to deal with random data and find the regulation.This article uses GM(1,1) model of grey system to analyze the tendency of impact factor of thirteen large catalogues and small contents in mathematics and oncology to get simulated models of them, and based on simulated models a prediction has been illustrated for the next few years.The significance of impact factor forecasting technical journals will be listed as follow. From the perspective of technical journals editors,knowing the calculation methods and the impact factor of the targeted journals in advance accurately provide the ability to grasp the tendency of journals. From the perspective of information researchers, knowing thecalculation methods and the impact factor of the targeted journals in advance can make the information analysis and prediction more scientific reasonable and improve the efficiency of the technology consolation and the information services. For scientists who engaged in management and evaluation, knowing the calculation methods and the impact factor of the targeted journals in advance can make the evaluation more reasonable.Likewise, this content has dramatic improvements in articles submission and periodicals selection.Based on the similar deadline, using impact factor to evaluate journals in the same area will be considered scientific. However, the doubt whether an impartial and scientific assumption can be made only using the impact factor to evaluate journals in different areas, since the difference of research areas has been mentioned by the various of elements, such as study environments, journal quantity.This article uses GM(1,1) model of grey system to obtain the simulated data, there is a difference can be observed among the mean of these data. Based on the rank sum test of thirteen catalogues and the independent sample T test of math and oncology, we can see a more obviously difference. So only using impact factor to evaluate journals in different research areas can be proved wrong. |
