The Research Of Prediction Model Based On Grey System Theory

This thesis research the application on the prediction model of Grey System Theory . GM(1,1) model of Grey System Theory is used in prediction realm.On this base, in serval special instances, this thesis also research how to improve GM(1,1) model and make grey forecasting more better accordly with practical applications.When practical system' s history data sequences rise up too quickly or dscend too quickly,then can't blindly use GM(1,1) model.Otherwise the forecast effects will be very bad.This thesis use GM(1,1) model having serial operator succeddly solve this problem.This thesis also improve incomplete difference GM(1,1) model and enlarged the application areas of incomplete difference GM(1,1) model.When practical system subject to the magnitude affects of national policy, GM(1,1) model should not be used , GM(1,1) mode can't be take no account of this effect.Or else,the forecast effects are also very bad and can't make you satisfying .This thesis bring forward an improved method of GM(1,1) model taking into account the effect of policy .Through examples validate,the effects are good.Finally,this thesis was summarized and pointed out more research work.