Research On Forecasting Critical Technologies Of Interdisciplinary Internet Of Things

Today, there are new development characteristics in science and technology. Thecross-integration features of science and technology is increasingly significant.Interdisciplinary study is becoming an important way to explain and resolve thedevelopment challenges which human faced. Innovation elements and resources areflowing rapidly in the world. It is more important than ever to grasp the developmenttrends of science and to forecast the critical technologies. In addition, with the increasingdevelopment of technology and the increasingly close connection between hardware andsoftware, human society is moving towards to “always keep in touch”. Nowadays, thenetwork is everywhere. The era of “Internet of Things” is coming.This paper relies on the project called “Research on Forecasting Key Technologiesof an Interdisciplinary Field Based on Scientometrics”. Based on the study of theoriesand methods of Technology Forecast, we find that research about forecasting criticaltechnologies of an interdisciplinary field is less. In this paper, factors and ways offorecasting critical technologies of an interdisciplinary field are analyzed. Based on that,bibliometric methods are adopted to determine the topics of forecasting, a forecastingindex system is built and a questionnaire for Delphi Survey is designed. At the end of thispaper, an empirical research of “Internet of Things” is carried out.First, a combination method of bibliometrics analysis and Delphi Survey is appliedin this paper. That is to begin with using the bibliometric analysis to get the basic researchand development status of the related technology based on the database of SCI andDerwent. We combine the expert opinions with which to determine the technologyforecast topics. Based on the consideration of both the interdisciplinary characteristics ofthe S&T and the shortage of multiple domain knowledge talents, this paper uses thebiliometric analysis results as the background knowledge of Delphi survey to make theforecasting outcomes more scientific and accurate.Then, a forecasting index system is built based on the factors analysis and methodsresearch. It includes nine indexes to forecast the key technologies of an interdisciplinaryfield, which are “degree of expertise”,“leading countries of the technology”,“R&D levelof China”,“importance to China”,“interdisciplinarity”,“time of technology realization”,“technical impacts”,“sectors that will pave the way to technology realization” and“technology for social application”. Finally, an empirical research of “Internet of Things (IOT)” is carried out. Thispaper raised10IOT forecasting topics as the empirical research object by combining thepresent situation of the basic research and technology development of IOT with expertopinions. Based on two rounds Delphi Surveys, there are four important conclusions:(1) Cloud computing and radio frequency identification technology is importantfor development of IOT.(2) Knowledge integration of multiple areas and participation of interdisciplinarytalents are necessary for development of IOT.(3) Relevant technologies of IOT can effectively promote economic developmentof China and improve Chinese living standard, but also put forward higher demands andchallenges of information security.(4) The government will play an important role in promoting relevanttechnologies of IOT for social applications. The government should actively promoteinterdisciplinary cooperation, meanwhile give support to the IOT related industries in theaspects of taxes, subsidies, procurement support and personnel training.