PFT-based Comprehensive Effectiveness Evaluation For The Space Early Warning System

As an important part of missile defense system, space early warning system canprovide the position of the missile and the launching point, complete the determinationof ballistic parameters and the conformation of the missile attack, and give necessaryguidance to the missile defense system for subsequent tracking and intercept bydiscriminating warheads and decoys.The technical sophistication, long development time and huge investment of thespace early warning system make many scheme choices available at all stages includingdemonstration, design, development and deployment phases. In terms of differentprograms, effectiveness evaluation can demonstrate their satisfaction levels to therequirements, find out their advantages and disadvantages, and thus provide scientificdecision support for selection and improvement of the programs. By analyzing thestructure, tasks, functions and early warning mission profiles of the space early warningsystem, this dissertation makes a research into the static effectiveness evaluation for theentire system and the coverage performance evaluation for different constellationconfigurations in STSS.The main researches and contributions on this thesis include:1. An index system is established for effectiveness evaluation of the space earlywarning system. A series stepwise in-depth analysis including structure analysis, taskanalysis and function analysis are made, which are combined with work flow ofearly-warning, and a complete index system is finally proposed. Then the completenesstest, rationality test and validity test of the index system are presented and the finalindex system is determined.2. The based-on-PFT is proposed for effectiveness evaluation of the space earlywarning system. Utility function is used to represent the degree to which bottom indexesfulfill requirements and normalize bottom indexes. Determining each evaluatingindicator’s weight by the AHP law, based on this, this thesis determines the assessmentmodel for evaluating the comprehensive effectiveness of the space early warningsystem.3. Based on designed schemes, the dissertation validates the based-on-AHP PFT’applicability to the space early warning system and analyzes the assessment results.Firstly with reference to DSP and SBIRS-High, two constellation programs areproposed to be evaluated by the based-on-AHP PFT and the results indicate thesuitability of the method. Secondly STK simulation is applied to obtain index values,which are used for calculating and analyzing the coverage performance of STSSsystems with different constellation configurations, and some conclusions with practicalsignificance are deduced out. By means of above process, the comprehensive effectiveness evaluation of spaceearly warning system is solved to provide technical support for project selection anddesign optimization.