Study On The Influence Of RMB Exchange Rates Change To Chinese Employment

In twenty-first Century, China’s exchange rate system has been re adjusted, aims to create amore flexible and can adjust the RMB exchange rate adjustment mech anism, our country will be faced with more from the international market exchang e rate shocks, in this context, the RMB appreciation and the severe employment situation is for us to solve the problem before.Further study on effect of exchang e rate changes on employment stability to maintain China’s sustained economic gr owth and employment, implementation has important theoretical and practical sig nificance to the economy inside and outside equilibrium and coordinated develop ment. In 2005 before the July reform of the RMB exchange rate, the problem o ffewdomestic scholars on the RMB exchange rate pass through, the academic ci re les begin to pay attention to the study of the RMB exchange rate pass throug h the problem though, the academic study of the RMB exchange rate pass throu gh is not mature. From the existingliteratures, a large amount of literature on the employment effect of size to stay on the RMB exchange rate changes, there is li ttle literature from non symmetry and incompleteness of theperspective of exchang e rate changes on the impact of employment.Based on the above background, this paper adopts theoretical analysis and emp irical research in harmony, and the combination of qualitative analysis and qua ntitative research methods, first of all, from the theoretical level, combed the e xchange rate movements on the impact of employment related concept and the main theory, and on this basis, further reveal the influence of exchange rate o n employment mechanism;Secondly, select eight different representative industry trade dependency, with the first quarter of 2003 to the third quarter of 2014 RMB real effective exchange rate index, industry wages, employment, through Fourier stability test, the co-integration ARDL model, the dynamic panel model, static panel, the panel threshold model and VAR model methods, from the pe rspective of asymmetry and not fully transfer perspective, analyzes the quantitat ive influence of exchange rate movements on different industry employment, es pecially the panel application of threshold model, belong to domestic innovatio n application in this field of research;Finally, on the basis of the theory and e mpirical studies, further impact on differences of different industry come to the conclusion that, from the Angle of the RMB exchange rate movements on the impact of the level of employment effect, the current domestic divisions study also relatively rare.In this paper, the main conclusions are as follows:first, the current value of e xchange rate and the impact of the employment between the negative effect of the exchange rate issue of lag values and the impact of the employment betw een the positive role, and the employment growth rate between a phase lag val ue and the current employment there exists a significant negative impact;Secon d, exchange rate variable in 90.4 for critical value of the impact of exchange r ate with asymmetric effect, namely when the exchange rate variables is greater than 90.4 and the exchange rate is less than 90.4, the change on the impact of employment will have a significant asymmetry;Third, the exchange rate chan ge on the impact of the level of employment is not completely transfer pheno menon, exchange rate changes, wages, employment system, which is in the exc hange rate changes, hit the response produced by different industry employment, has significant difference of the industry.