| China is in the stage of rapid development of population aging,the pace of development has gone beyond the rest of the world's countries.The rapid development of population aging will inevitably bring some obstacles to the development of China's economic development.Therefore,it has important practical significance for researching the impact of population aging on the labor productivity of 30 provinces in China.First of all,this paper combs the domestic and foreign research literature on population aging,and finds that most of the literature studies the impact of population aging on economic growth,and few studies on the impact of population aging on labor productivity.There exists differences in different economic periods and different economic development levels for the impact of population aging on labor productivity.Capital deepening,human capital and economic density are the three key factors affecting labor productivity.Secondly,this paper analyzes the present situation and causes of population aging and labor productivity in China.It finds that the proportion of the old population is large,the aging rate is fast,the aging population is aging and the population aging is very different.The main reason is that there exists difference of Chinese economic development level,and there exist one-child policy.Focusing on labor productivity,we find that the labor supply declines and it shows ladder-like distribution for labor productivity from east to west.Thirdly,this paper takes capital deepening,educational variables and economic density as for control variables into the panel error correction model by using the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2014.By choosing estimation method of fixed effects,this paper studies the effects of population aging on provincial labor productivity based on different economic stage,we find the effect of population aging on labor productivity is negative in both short and long run.Using the logarithm of GDP per capita as the threshold variable,this paper studies the effect of population aging on the productivity of labor productivity at different levels of economic development by threshold regression method.It finds that there exists interval effect for the influence of population aging on labor productivity: The influence coefficient is-0.319,when the per capita GDP is more than 4.5 million and less than 81,000 yuan(RMB),the influence coefficient is-0.128,when the per capita GDP is greater than 81,000 yuan,the impact factor is-0.341.With the improvement of economic level,the negative influence of population aging on labor productivity is weakened and then strengthened.Finally,the paper puts forward three recommendations for solving the problem of population ageing and improving provincial labor productivity by combining the theoretical mechanism analysis and the empirical test results,which is as follows: to develop the labor force of the aged population to extend the demographic dividend period,to improve the quality of the laborers to enhance the human capital level and to encourage the technological innovation so as to enhance the level of capital deepening. |
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