| In recent years, Natural disasters occur frequently. Improving the rescue efficiency has been a hot issue of emergency logistics. This paper study on the classification and grading, demand deduction and collaborative dispatch of emergency relief supplies.Based on the similarity in contingency theory, Fiedler contingency modal in organizational behavior is applied to the classification of emergency relief supplies to guide the preparation before disasters; while considering economic cost, a comprehensive intelligence assessment system of scientific and accurate classification is established by cluster analysis of gray whitening weight function, in order to efficiently resolve the classification problems of emergency relief supplies and to improve the efficiency of disaster relief. Furthermore, the grade of each supplies based on possible disasters in an area is proposed and certificated.Focused on casualties forecast and demand deduction of, relief supplies in large-scale earthquake, a three-step method is presented to establish the deduction model. Firstly, BP neural network is improved to forecast the total casualties based on BP neural network. Secondly, Mistcherlich model is applied to deduce the casualties of each day. Based on this, the real-time deduction model considering the time and inventory control is proposed. This paper particularly illustrates the improvement of BP neural network and the deduction model. Given that the dynamic prediction and updated casualties of real time is added to the model, the proposed method can deduce the demand at certain intervals.Based on the demand deduction above, emergency supplies scheduling model is established aiming at rapid response, less loss and low cost considering multiple supplies, multiple relief depots and multiple stricken areas. A revised dispatch mechanism is approved that relief depots can deploy goods each other within the same relief scope. A hub-and-spoke network is established, within which the hub centers of relief and stricken area are selected respectively. The theory not only alleviates the transport pressure, but also control the supply and demand to make the rescue orderly. |
