Research On Optimizing The Emergency Distribution Based On The Demand Analysis Of Emergency Supplies

In recent years, the frequent occurrence of unexpected events has huge impact on theeconomic growth, social stability as well as people’s normal production and life. In order toreduce the loss caused by unexpected incidents, it must take timely and effective emergencyrescue measures, especially the emergency materials reserve and emergency resourcescheduling. After the Wenchuan earthquake, the Ministry of civil affairs and the UnitedNational Reserve System increased from10to24. At the same time, the provinces,autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the central government have established31provincial reserves. In response to the sudden natural disaster, despite the great progressmade in China, the problems of long time emergency relief supplies scheduling and cost toomuch. Notably, ensuring the affected people’s life safe is the most important event underunexpected events. While the food type of emergency material supply is an importantmaterial foundation to protect the safety of the people of the affected area. In a number of theprojects on emergency supplies reserve and optimal allocation, research of food emergencysupplies scheduling is relatively weak. Through the actual emergency rescue work, it is notdifficult to find, the failure of emergency management cannot meet the basic needs of life ofpeople affected. Therefore, in order to make the emergency rescue work smoothly, safeguardthe people’s life safety; it is necessary to establish a system for food emergency materialdemand estimation and optimizing resources allocation.On the basis of summarizing the domestic and foreign existing emergency resourcescheduling technology research and advanced experience, the food emergency resourcedemand is predicted by using BP neural network model. On this prediction results, it isaiming at the practical problems in the emergency rescue work from the non time varyingdemand and supply constraints to time-varying supply and demand constraints. It makes theemergency material allocation model under different environment. The main contents of thispaper include:First, analysis of food emergency material demand: analyses the casualties after thedisaster through the integrated use of the principal component analysis method and BP neuralnetwork, so it can be obtained to estimate model of demand forecast food emergencyresources. With the comparison of Gauss fitting function model, it can prove that BP neuralnetwork model on the effectiveness of food emergency resource demand estimation.Second, the supply and demand does not change with time (time invariant) foodemergency material allocation model: through the analysis of the characteristics ofemergency rescue point, the economic concept of cost as the evaluation index of emergencyallocation scheme is be considered in the earliest emergency response time. According to thecharacteristics of emergency demand point in non time-varying emergency material input, knowing that the requirements of the emergency rescue work of demand on emergencymaterials have the risk of disruption, it makes the emergency material allocation model ofsystem convergence time based on the existing model. As comparison, the simulation resultsprove that the actual operation of emergency water resources allocation model based onsystem convergence time is more in line with the emergency allocation of water resources. Sothe decision makers can use the model of emergency material distribution on non timevarying circumstances to make more in line with the actual situation of emergency plan.Third, the supply and demand change with time (time-varying) food emergency resourceallocation model: as a save point perspective under the sudden event specific, emergencyresources supply depot probably won’t be able to meet the emergency needs of the emergencymaterial demand quantity, then the system takes more time to solve the contradiction ofsupply and demand. Based on the time-varying resource supply on the emergency system, itis established in line with the conditions of food emergency material distribution model. Inaddition, starting from the demand point of view, not only a save point of emergencyresources supply varies with time, but the emergency demand point the demand for theemergency supplies also changed over time, it is establishing metabolic supply and demandmaterial allocation model degeneration. By comparing the simulation results of the exampleanalysis, verify that the time-varying material allocation model of supply and demandconstraints make the response rate of the emergency response system is accelerating,providing a more reasonable and scientific selection method on emergency materialdistribution for decision makers.