Epidemiologic Characteristics Of Reported Infectious Diseases In Y City From 2005 To 2015

Objective:As an international trade city, Y City has got rapidly economic development in recent years, and communicated with each other frequently across the country even all over the world. At the same time, the infectious diseases spread quickly. The incidence of TB is high, the incidence of AIDS is rising, and imported infectious diseases such as dengue fever and malaria appear from time to time. In order to study the epidemiologic characteristics of infectious diseases in Y city, and master the change rule of infectious diseases, now describe and analysis the reported infectious diseases epidemic characteristics in Y City from 2005 to 2015.Methods:Firstly, analysis the morbidity and mortality of reported infectious diseases in Y City from 2005 to 2015 with descriptive epidemiology and get the trends and epidemic characteristics. Then make further discussion and description with hepatitis B, TB, gonorrhea, syphilis, AIDS, hand-foot-mouth disease, dengue fever and malaria. Then take hepatitis B, TB, gonorrhea, syphilis and AIDS for example, with the data of season incidence of the five infectious disease from 2005 to 2015, run the Runs Test. If the data is random, forecast the trend of the disease with the moving average method. Finally, take hand-foot-mouth disease for example, establish an ARIMA model based on monthly incidence data of hand-foot-mouth disease from January 2009 to June 2015, and then used to predict the monthly incidence from July 2015 to December 2015.Results:1. During 2005-2015, there were 33 kinds of legal infectious diseases reported in Y City, the total amount was 79417, including 87 deaths. No Class A infectious disease was reported. There were 25 kinds of Class B infectious diseases reported, the total amount was 45196, the incidence was between 179.01/100,000 and 544.37/100,000, the average incidence was 386.60/100,000, the average mortality was 0.677/100,000. There were 8 kinds of Class C infectious diseases reported, the total amount was 34221, the incidence was between 49.15/100,000 and 704.47/100,000, the average incidence was 269.24/100,000, the average mortality was 0.066/100,000.2.See from the incidence of Class A and Class B infectious diseases, hepatitis B, TB and gonorrhea were always among the top five during 2005-2015.Syphilis was also among the top five except 2005. The order of hepatitis B went back and the order of TB and gonorrhea went ahead recent years. See from the route of transmission, the highest rate was blood and sexually transmitted infectious diseases which accounted for 64.20%, the next was respiratory infectious diseases which accounted for 27.39%.3.The epidemic characteristics of focus infectious diseases1)Hepatitis B:the average incidence was 107.01/100,000 during 2005-2015. The largest number were young men.2)TB:bacteria (-) cases account for 45.33% of all cases, and bacteria (+) with great significance of infection occupied 34.39%.3)Gonorrhea:the average incidence was 59.32/100,000 during 2005-2015, and the trend was up recent years. The largest number were young men and business services.4)Syphilis:the incidence was between 30.56/100,000 and 140.86/100,000 during 2005-2015 and fluctuated largely. The trend was smoothly increasing recent years. The largest number were business services.5)AIDS:the incidence was up year by year during 2005-2015. The largest number were business services.6)Hand-foot-mouth disease:there were cases every month and two peaks every year. The main cases were children under 3 years old.7)Dengue fever:there were 208 cases during 2005-2015,193 of which were local cases, reported in 2009.8)Malaria:there were 204 Chinese cases and 95 Foreign cases during 2005-2015.,18 of which were local case. The main cases were men between 20 and 50 years old. Occupational distribution showed a concentration of cases in business services.4.The incidence of Hepatitis B will smoothly decrease, the incidence of TB, gonorrhea and syphilis will smoothly increase, and the incidence of AIDS and HIV will be up year by year. The R was 0.699 and the BIC was 6.183 of the ARIMA (0,1,1) (1,1,0) 12 model, which was the fittest model to predict the monthly incidence of HFMD. The real value was included in the 95% CI, but the error was considerably large.Conclusion:The trend of Class B infectious diseases in Y City was mainly decline earlier and slowly rising in recent years. Class C infectious diseases presented a characteristic of one year high and one year low. Blood and sexually transmitted infectious diseases were the main diseases which influence the health of residents. Hepatitis B, TB, gonorrhea, syphilis, AIDS, dengue fever, malaria and hand-foot-mouth disease are the focus infectious diseases now. The moving average method can basically meet the needs of forecasting trend of infectious diseases at primary level. ARIMA model can provide a reference for quantitatively predicting of infectious disease at primary level, but the precision may be not high.