Analysis The Incidence Tendency Of Main Legal Infectious Diseases In Jincheng Coal Mining Group Co. Ltd And Predict Incidence Of Dysentery With Time Series Model

Objective With the progress of science technology, the improvement of people's living conditions and the implementation of EPI, many infectious diseases have been effectively controlled, but in recent years, a number of infectious diseases, such as Tuberculosis, Viral hepatitis have started to spread again. It is theoretically and practically important to confirm the incidence tendency, to find out the theoretical epidemic rules, pre-estimate the development and adopt the effective intervention measures. The research of epidemiological mathematical models has been widely concerned. To provide theoretical evidences to constitute the prevention and cure measures reasonably and effectively, we built dynamic models of the epidemic situations of dysentery and explored the application value of the models in disease control and prophylaxis in this city.Methods We collected the infectious diseases and demographic data from 1994 to 2003 of Jincheng Coal mining group Co. Ltd, and described the incidence rate of some infectious diseases and their distributions to learn the dynamic condition of the main infectious diseases during the ten years in Jincheng Coal mining group Co. Ltd. ARIMA model based on the incidence rate of dysentery was fitted and evaluate the dysentery incidence level of Jincheng Coal mining group Co. Ltd with this model.Results 2898 cases of the legal infectious disease were reported from 1998 to 2007, and the average annual incidence was 442.83/100000. No class A infectious diseases were reported and 18 kinds of class B and C infectious were reported. The total incidence of legal communicable disease was ascendant in Jincheng Coal mining group Co. Ltd during the past 10 years. The incidence showed 2 peaks in 2000,2004, being highest in 2007 with an incidence of 1024.59/100000.The composition of infectious disease apparently changed and entomophilous infectious diseases were markedly reduced. The faecal-oral transmitted diseases and the sexually transmitted diseases increase most distinctly. The top 3 infectious diseases in incidence were viral hepatitis, pulmonary tuberculosis and dysentery. After transformation of the natural logarithm, the fitting effect of ARIMA (1,0,0) (0,1,1) is good, it can provide the accurate forecast for the incidence rate of dysentery.Conclusion The epidemic status of notifiable disease of Jincheng Coal mining group Co. Ltd was serious. It is necessary to constantly enhance the prevention of all kinds of infectious diseases. Hepatitis B, pulmonary tuberculosis, and intestinal infectious are the target diseases to be controlled in the future. Applying the ARIMA model to establish the incidence rate model of dysentery, the fitting effect is good, the models have important practical values, and thus it can provide the scientific and theoretical basis for making the prevention and cure measures.