Study On Core Indicator System And Forecast Toolkit Designing For Health And Family Planning Development

Objective:This study focused on constructing the core indicator system for health and family planning and developing forecast toolkit, providing references for national and local governments in their five-year planning process.Contents:The national indicator systems for health and family planning development were reviewed; the theory frame was confirmed; then core indicator system was constructed and the forecast toolkit was developed. And research suggestions were offered thereby.Methods:National and provincial five-year plans for health and family planning were collected and the frequency analysis of indicators was performed. Literature review was also done to get the information on Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Two round of expert consultation was applied to construct the core indicator system. The degree of concentration and coordination was sorted by analyzing mathematical statistics. And R language was used to develop forecast toolkit.Results:A theory framework of indicator systems for health and family planning were constructed. Input-output model represented by developing country, world bank and WHO, which measuring input and output to reflect organizational performance of health system. Health determinants model analysis health and influence factors to reflect health state and effect of factors. In this study, two models were combined to construct core indicator system of health and family planning.The core indicator system of health and family planning was constructed. The draft indicator system of 54 indicators was constructed followed by literature review and expert consultation. After two round of expert consultation, core indicator system of health and family planning was confirmed, containing bed and staff, health finance and expenditure, medical care, public health and health promotion, population and family planning, health outcomes. There were totally 32 indicators which have high degree of concentration and coordination.The forecast toolkit of core indicators was developed. R language was used to develop forecast toolkit which was a webpage, providing exponential smoothing, ARIMA and grey model. This toolkit can forecast indicators quickly, helping decision maker who knew little about time series, providing useful tool for local government.Discussions:The national and provincial twelfth five-year plans of health and family planning were reviewed. These plans had many differences both in goals and contents. The core indicator system contained bed and staff, health finance and expenditure, effect of medical care, system management of pregnant, health supervision, management of chronic non-communicable diseases and mental disease, vaccination rate, hierarchical medical system, health promotion and health outcome, reflecting long-term and realistic need of health and family planning. Meanwhile, the indictors involving SDGs were adopted, absorbing SDGs’idea and achievement. This indicator system can provide references for national and local governments in their five-year planning process, establish relationship between nation and local, help to definitude and realize national development goals. The local government should insist on the principle of health-oriented, promoting health and accessibility, increasing efficiency, adjust the core indicators according to the fact.The forecast toolkit was a webpage which providing exponential smoothing, ARIMA and grey model. It had simple interface, decision maker who knew little about time series can get and visualize the forecast result quickly, helping users to choose appropriate model as well as improve work efficiency. This method followed the thought of evidence-based decision-making, the local government should consider other factors on the basis of foreacast result to construct the developing plan.Suggestions:The local government should reference the core indicator system when formulating five-year planning process. The core indicator system was suitable in the next 5-10 years, after 2020, it’s necessary to modify the core indicators. When using the forecast toolkit, users should choose an appropriate model to get a better effect.