Research On The Construction Of Power Consumer Risk Warning Model And System Based On Electric Load Characteristics

With the developing of Energy Internet, distributed generation, UHV power transmission and other advanced technology, the development of power system presents a diversified, intelligent and distributed features. As the terminal of power industry chain, power consumers will not only depend on the power system more deeply, but also generate feedback effect which would bring more complex risks to the security and stability of the power system running. Therefore, it is necessary to study on user-side electricity risk warning theory.Electric load data can truly reflect the electricity consumption situation of power consumers. Previous researchers has focused on load forecasting, load classification and achieved good results. But there is few research in the field of power risk warning. From the perspective of the power load characteristics, this paper analyzed the power user classification and electric risk management theory deeply. A power consumers risk warning system based on the load characteristics including load characteristic risk indicators selecting, risk warning model, warning tools and coping strategies was constructed. Then, a comprehensive load mode risk warning model based on improved fuzzy C-means clustering algorithm was built. It solves the disadvantages of traditional fuzzy clustering algorithm in being sensitive to the initial cluster centers, hard to determine the number of clusters, unstable and large number of iterations. A single-valued load characteristic risk warning model based on random rearrangement multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis algorithm was built. It can determine risk warning threshold of load characteristics from the data itself instead of previous subjective and empirical methods. These models provided strong theoretical basis for the risk warning. And they prove the effectiveness of themselves by taking advantage of the actual operating data of power grid. Finally, on the basis of theoretical research, using information technology ideas and means, this paper studied on the construction of risk warning system from the perspectives of requirements analysis, framework design, modules design and risk response mechanisms. It will help power companies and consumers to understand the law behind the changing of electricity load characteristics and provide basis for decision making on power system planning, distribution network safe and stable operation and power accident prevention.