Dynamic Analysis Of Guizhou Electric Power Market And Its Future

Demand forecast is crucial to determining the need for new electricity generation. It provides the essential data for electric power planning. Its precision directly affects the result of the planning. If the expected demand was less than the actual demand, it would cause the shortage of power supply, even limited usage. If the forecasted demand excessively was in advance to actual demand, the low usage of system cause serious waste of the resources. Many famous international organizations made the various forecast on Chinese electric power demand, but most of the forecasts in recent years are not so accurate, even they couldn't explain the reason afterwards.The author analyzed the problems which electric power demand forecasts met recently, then introduce an ideal model to get the electric power elasticity coefficient should be less than 1 when a country or the area is developing. The primary factor which affected the electric power elasticity coefficient is the import-export trade, especially the high-energy consumption and low-energy consumption industries of the import-export trade. Therefore, based on the fact that some potential industries in Guizhou province caught the opportunity of "West Development", the author proposed that Guizhou electric power market can be divided into three sub-markets: the market in Guizhou province (besides high-energy consumption industries), high-energy consumption industries and the out...