| The real estate industry is a pillar role in the development of national economy, a major role for its development. But with the rapid development of real estate, to the king frequent, housing prices are soaring, the emergence of real estate development overheating problems. Real estate has a long industrial chain, industry association and other characteristics, related to their healthy development of many industries. However, the real estate development will cause overheating of real estate related industries, as well as macroeconomic volatility.Therefore, in view of Beijing’s real estate development in the country with typical and representative, this article focuses on the macro-level quantitative analysis of real estate in Beijing to run high on the positive growth of the national economy and negative losses specifically in the area of real estate for the future provide the basis for positioning and direction of development.The high operation should be described as a stage of the development of real estate, including over heating and even bubble two cases.Based on the theory of economic growth, real estate development on macroeconomic indicators system, first select the real estate investment share of GDP, growth rate and GDP growth rates and the price earnings ratio than three indicators. Then Beijing real estate development stage is divided into three phases, 2000-2004 rapid development stage, development stage overheating 2005-2010, 2011-2013 regression stage of development.In this paper, will through growth, growth rate value method and regression analysis method, from the two aspects of positive and negative effects were calculated respectively in Beijing City real estate under the different stages of the macro economy, especially for the comprehensive evaluation of effects of Beijing City real estate high operation of macro economy.The study found that, the overheated real estate development during 2005-2010, with contributions and stimulating economic growth effect on economic growth still, but the contribution rate of rapid development stage is from 12.22% to 7.12%. The efficiency of GDP growth decreased from 1.3 to 1.1, to the macro economic growth efficiency harm. In the development of regression stage since 2011, because the development stage characteristics, its contribution to the economy and lower rate only reached 5.79%, also not good to play the role of pillar industry, for economic growth than the rapid development stage. In view of this, the high operation will cause the real estate industry to generate positive and negative bidirectional effects,and negative effects will expansion on macroeconomic.Lead the real estate industry may surface prosperity,actually hides the crisis.Therefore, control real estate prices inflated, and stable development of the real estate industry trend is the development direction of the industry.Further, this paper argues that, in view of the real estate industry its contribution rate is larger and has a longer industry chain, its healthy development to drive the effect on national economy is obvious, Beijing City real estate should continue as a pillar industry. The rapid growth of the direction of its development not only to take into account the economy, people’s livelihood should be better play the role of the real estate market,and steady development. In the primary market, to increase the government investment in low-income housing, improve housing security system, and standardizing the government behavior. The development of the market of standardized two or three stage, optimize the allocation of resources, and promote the development of leasing market norms, to solve the needs of floating population. At the same time the need to reform the tax system, and the difference of heavy taxation to effectively suppress the real estate market speculative demand, meet the rigid demand, and promote the rational regression of Beijing real estate industry stability, coordination, sustainable development with macroeconomic. |
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