The Study Of Macro-economic Factors Affecting China's Real Estate Prices

Real estate has become an important pillar of our national economy in the industrial. The rapid rise in Real estate prices has caused widespread concern in all sectors of society, which, in particular, has caused the central government's concern about regulation of real estate prices. The global economic crisis triggered by U.S. financial crisis, brought a serious impact on China's real estate market. To maintain the stable development of real estate and make the coordinated development of real estate prices with macroeconomic is essential to China's sustained and rapid economic development. Grasping the factors of real estate price changes in real estate prices accurately, in particular, that it should be linked with the changes of macro-economic, as well as assessing the positive and negative impact of real estate prices on the macroeconomic accurately, is important to the China's macro-control.This paper, on the basis of research results at home and abroad, and combined China's real estate prices with changes in the actual situation of macroeconomic development in recent years, analyzed the macro-economic factors affecting the real estate prices seriously. We use the Econometrics as a tool, and then have an empirical study of the relationship between real estate prices and the macro-economic factors, which affects Real estate prices on the base of the real estate finance and Macroeconomics. On the one hand, real estate prices and macroeconomic factors affecting the real estate prices are saw as a system, and then we established the VAR model to analysis the macroeconomic variables affecting the real estate prices and the dynamic relationship between them. On the other hand, the multi-model GRACH are established to study the relationship between the real estate prices and monetary policy. Finally, according to results of the preceding analysis of relevant policy recommendations, some relevant policy recommendations are made.Through theoretical analysis and empirical research, the main conclusions of this paper are following: first of all, the real estate prices of our country are based on macro-economic fundamentals in order to stabilize the housing market for the purpose of regulation; Second, Monetary policy will be pegged to the real estate prices in the short run; the current moderate accommodative monetary policies are conducive to the stability of the real estate market; Third, Price control will be combined with the demand for regulation and control, expanding domestic demand and investment plans to increase housing construction to protect and expand the coverage of low-cost protection of populations; Forth, real estate prices could be included in the rate of inflation in preparation for the national policy-making to provide better reference. Last but not the least, combined the rate-control policies with other government-related policies will be more conductive to achieving effective control.We hope that this research paper could help the real estate market participants to understand the reasons for changes of the real estate, and understand the relationship between the real estate prices and the macro-economy factors, as well as the macro-control in order to guide our practice.