| As with the accelerating urbanization process, urban population aging problem isincreasingly highlighted, the problem of olds’ pension demand gradually arousedpeople’s attention. Shanghai, as one of the most serious city of aging problem in ourcountry, the ageing population has nearly twice as much as the proportion of thecountry. As the empty nest, the family miniaturization rising, social endowment hasbecome inevitable trend. However, the traditional nursing home and pensioninstitutions are mostly aimed at older age, alone, the disable, low-income, hardlife.These instituations always have limited beds, humble infrastructure and only havethe basic effects which can impossily meet the demand of large elderly population.Therefore, the development of commercial endowment property can help the olds tohave not only a better “house†but also have a better home, a better aging life.However, the development of commercial endowment property in Shanghai areso slow.So this article is written in the perspective of demand, By the analysis of theold man who are living or not in the senior real-estate,we can get a comprehensiveunderstanding of the them about the demand of commercial endowment property.This anylsis started from the four factors: "Population" "Economic" "Social" and“Policy†and then make a quantitative analysis of the survey data. Through thebinomial Logistic model,we find out the factors of "Income" "age" "degree" "whetherlive alone" "satisfaction of exsiting living" are the five obvious factors in the demandof commercial endowment real estate. Then we made a forecaste of the demand ofcommercial endowment real estate in Shanghai based on the factors and currentpopulation. Finally, the ariticle put forward some policy and suggestions, in order toincrease the residents’ demand for commercial endowment property, and promote thehealthy development of commercial endowment property. |
