Research On Electricitv Requirement Based On Market

Electricity plays an increasingly important role in modern society. Electricity should be taken as the center when carrying out strategy to promote the development of energy. Electricity consumption has a close relationship with the market as the gnomic remark,"power precedes economy". It is fairly meaningful to research the requirement based on market.There are several market elements to influence electricity consumption. Illustrated by practical example from Zhejiang Province, different influential elements have been analyzed from the four following dimensionalities:macro economy, industry structure, energy end-use structure and direct power purchase by large consumers. This paper analyzes the relevancy between electricity requirement and macro economy, discusses the influence caused by industry structure, places the evolution characters of energy structure and investigates the effect after bringing in direct power purchase.Due to these elements mentioned above, The forecast modelsare established on these elements mentioned above.It should be noted that the direct power purchase has not been carried out on a large scale, thus the paper has not considered this element.Economy development is characterized by the following three indexes: investment, consumption and export, then the Vector autoregression (VAR) model is employed to certify whether there is a long-term equilibrium between electricity requirement and the economy indexes. Mentioningto the forecast based on industry structure, it needs to predict each industry separately. This paper applies Grey theory, which contains several usual methods, such as GM(1,1), DGM(1,1) and Verhulst models, and using which model depends on the character of the sequences. The Markov Prediction that has no latter effect is suitable for the energy end-use structure. When the error sum squaresreachesminimal, the optimization model is firstly set up to get the matrix of transition probability, in the second place the matrix is solved to attain the probability under a certain condition, at last the requirement is obtained from the energy probability. To summarize the above models, the article applies residual root mean square method to confirm the weight of each model.According to the electricity requirement of Zhejiang Province from1995to2012, codes are written to predict the requirement of Zhejiang during the period of2013to2020.The experience of foreign electricity markets shows that carrying out direct power purchase by large consumers would stimulate the potential of the market, which is a breakthrough for market-oriented reforms in power industry. This paper probes into the core contents of direct power purchase, designs the model of transaction, transmission, the principle for market access and entry, the price and so forth.This paper can be regarded as a reference for the relative research about electricity consumption requirement based on market.