An Analysis Of The Factors Influencing Unemployment In China 's Transitional Period

The unemployment problem has always been the hot topic of economic scholars,research in this field in China is confined to the validation of Okun’s law and someinfluence factors on the rate of unemployment, the empirical analysis uses datamostly from urban registered unemployment rate published by "China StatisticalYearbook". This paper will locate the study time in transition period since1992, dueto the impact of economic and social transformation and the particularity ofunemployment, the unemployment problem has become more complex. Therefore,the paper put influence factors in the transformation period of unemployment as theresearch core, is divided into seven parts, as follows:The first part is the introduction. Mainly introduces the research background,research significance, ideas and methods.The second part is the theoretical research of unemployment and the influencefactors. Mainly explains the basic concept and type of unemployment, the relatedtheory of unemployment. Including the western unemployment theory, Marx’s classictheory of unemployment, the research and comparative analysis on influence factorsof unemployment at home and abroad, to understand the current research status ofexperts and scholars on related issues.The third part is the analysis on the status and characteristics of Chineseunemployment during the transition period. First of all, describe the status of Chineseunemployment, summarizes the characteristics of Chinese unemployment during thetransition period; then, by combining with the results of previous studies, calculatedthe real unemployment rate included urban and rural hidden unemployment, in orderto show the severity of current unemployment in China.The fourth part is the applicability test of Okun’s law in China in transitionperiod. Firstly, this paper uses the urban registered unemployment rate and economicgrowth rate published by "China Statistical Yearbook" to carry out correlation analysis, results show that, due to China economy does not meet the four conditionsof Okun’s law is established, the "high unemployment and high economic growth"paradox exists indeed. Then, in order to eliminate data errors caused by trust, thispaper uses the third part calculated real unemployment rate data to carry out empiricalanalysis, but the results of the regression fitting degree is not high, the rate ofeconomic growth and the change in the unemployment rate has little correlation.Finally, considering the features of China’s economy, the introduction of a virtual timevariable for empirical analysis, the results are still not significant.The fifth part is the empirical analysis of the factors affecting Chineseunemployment during the transition period. On the basis of above analysis, this paperput6factors included the adjustment of economic structure, investment in fixedassets, the current account surplus, consumption, inflation and the minimum wageinto Okun’s law standard model for empirical study. The results show that, althoughthe overall equation fitting degree is improved, there exist the long-term equilibriumrelationship between the explanatory variables and the change in the unemploymentrate, but GDPIand GDPcdid not pass the T test. At the same time, the coefficient ofthe six variables are generally small, the single variable short-term effect on changesin the unemployment rate is not significant. Further showed that the heterogeneity ofthe unemployment problem China transition shows is the comprehensive effect ofthese factors results.The sixth part is the policy suggestion. For each explanatory variable transitioneffect on the change rate of unemployment, we should make efforts in the followingaspects: first, deepen the reform of economic system; second, vigorously promote thedevelopment of the third industry; third, to make rational investment; fourth, optimizethe trade structure, improve the added value of export commodities; fifth, we willdeepen reform of the income distribution system, improve the income level of the lowincome crowd.The seventh part is the summary of the whole thesis.