Empirical Research On The Relationship Between Economic Growth And Employment In Gansu Province

It is the hot research topic and macroeconomic focus study that relationship betweeneconomic growth and employment in our country at present.Firstly,the paper reviews theresearch status at home and abroad, comparative analysis point of classical, neo-classical andnon-balanced growth relates to economic growth and employment relations, the authoranalysis domestic research at six aspects to provide a solid theoretical basis for this paper,employment elasticity trend, synchronization of economic growth and employment growth,Causes of high-growth with low employment, non-equilibrium employment with outputgrowth, priority controversy of economic growth and employment, relationship betweenspecial populations employment and economic growth.Secondly, the paper has analyzed the changing characteristics of economic growth andemployment in Gansu Province, the results are that economic output figure was the right partof the "U" since1978, economic growth has experienced a high growth rate and highvolatility, higher degree of volatility of the growth rate, high growth rates low fluctuations inthree stages, the growth rate leveled off. Three industrial output growth rate followed by "two,three, one", the size of the percentage of the GDP is still" two, three, one", there is a gapbetween the ideal industrial structure. The total employment of Gansu province hasexperienced high growth rates highly volatile, highly volatile low growth rates, higher growthrate of low volatility in three stages, three industries the proportion of employment size "one,three, two", the proportion of primary industry employment basically stable at60%, theproportion of tertiary industries rather slow improvement. It is the opposite of economicgrowth and employment growth in most years in Gansu Province In the short term, that is tosay, high economic growth rates accompanied by a low employment growth rate, butvolatility is consistent. In long run, the growth of the economic and employment change frominconsistent to consistent, volatility change from the highly volatile to a low level offluctuations consistent. Overall, it is more and more obvious that high economic growth ratesand low employment growth rate.The next, the article analyzes the basic relationship characterization between economicgrowth and employment growth, the maximum correlation coefficient is0.794, and0.01bythe test of significance in all correlation coefficient. Granger cause Granger causality testdrawn, Gansu Province, the economic growth rate is that lead to change of employment, andnot the secondary and tertiary industries changes in the rate of employment, the economicgrowth rate is that not lend to change of total employment, the secondary and tertiaryindustries is caused by changes in the rate of economic growth Granger cause. Therefore, inorder to effectively resolve this contradiction, it is necessary to increase the employment of the secondary and tertiary industries as a starting point, forming a virtuous circle of economicgrowth and employment growth.The author has estimated the contribution of labor and investment to economic growth bydouble logarithmic neoclassical model under constant technology to the three stages every11years in1978-2010. The results show that contribution are0.35and0.73of labor andinvestment to the economic growth in Gansu Province at long-term, the labor’s contributionto economic growth first substantial decline, and then rise slowly at short-term.Besides, the paper has tested the five modes of Okun’s Law. The results show thatdifferential mode, gap mode, symmetric dynamic mode and production function mode are allfailure in Gansu empirical research, only asymmetric dynamic Okun’s law is applicable in theperiod of economic contraction in Gansu Province. Therefore, it is efficacious to reduce theunemployment rate by increasing output and promoting economic growth in economiccontraction in Gansu Province, but there is a certain risk relying solely on economic growth toagainst high unemployment in the period of economic expansion.Then, the paper draws that the general trend changes of employment elasticity: highemployment elasticity and high fluctuations of the1980s; high employment elasticity and lowemployment elastic wave of1990s; low employment elasticity and low fluctuations after2000according to the employment elasticity formulaE=GL/Gysince the reform and opening up.Regression method is to get the long-term average employment elasticity of Gansu Province,the linkage regression elastic size followed by "One, two, three", the Non-linkage regressionelastic size followed by "Three, two, one, two".This result can not only interpret the primaryindustry employment "reservoir""Matthew effect" of the spare tire, and also shows highemployment absorption capacity of the tertiary industry.The last, we have calculated employment creation capacity of the industry segments inGansu Province by horizontal equilibrium model of the input-output table AX+Y=Xanddirect consumption coefficient matrix in2007. The average service employment creationcapacity is0.0967person/million, the industry average employment creation capacity is0.0789person/million and agriculture0.033person/million, these conclusions proved that theservice’s high employment creativity in theoretically. Employment creation capacity in GansuProvince industry segments: coal mining and washing industry, education, public facilitiesmanagement of water, environment, water production and supply industry, instrumentationprocessing machinery manufacturing, public administration and social organizations,financial services, health and social welfare industry, electricity and heat production andsupply industry, culture and sports entertainment. Sub-industry employment creation capacitySort indicates that not all high employment is concentrated in the tertiary industry, not all sectors of the manufacturing industry are the ability of low employment creation. Therefore,we must focus on service industry employment creation capacity and give financial supportand preferential policies to high levels of employment of manufacturing.Based on relationship economic growth and employment, combined with the varioussub-sectors of employment creation capacity difference, in order to against decliningemployment elasticity, to get rid of the embarrassing situation of high growth with lowemployment and high unemployment, the basic policy the recommendations are: Priority theemployment growth as the goal to ensure the steady increase of the employment level;Secondary industry focus on structural optimization, the tertiary industry to acceleratetechnological innovation; Increase support to high employment creation industry; Reduce theunemployment rate is the preferred method is to increase output and promote economicgrowth in economic systolic in Gansu Province, against high unemployment rate in the periodof economic expansion to focus on the ability to create high employment guide workers to theindustry flow; take full advantage of national policies to promote employment, efforts topromote urban and rural employment; positive learn from other provinces to promoteemployment policies and practices to ensure long-term employment services normalized.