Study On System Dynamics Analysis Of Urban Spatial Growth Mechanism Under China’s New Normal

In the Chinese characteristic urbanization movement, as the most valuable resources which is belonged to the local governments, the land attributes to the urban development and the "land finance" to protect the local finance income. In the urban development, the government has gradually transformed from the controller to the operator, which is not only the old normal deep printing, but also the strategic choice of the dilemma of the game. In the old normal, "land bonus" and "demographic bonus" speed up the process of urbanization in China, with the rapid expansion of urban space and structural reorganization, "compression urbanization" phenomenon has become increasingly serious. Also, its structural contradictions and negative effects have become increasingly prominent. The disorder of the construction land is spreading, the ecological environment is worsening, and the social group contradiction is prominent. Under the old normal, the traditional urban growth model has been difficult to continue.Along with the economy entering into the new normal, the traditional urban growth mode is facing the huge challenge. On the basis of analyzing the dynamic mechanism of urban spatial growth in the old normal mode of our country, this paper points out that the third-party force of the relevant interest groups play an important role in restraining the urban growth and promoting the transformation of the urban space from the perspective of qualitative analysis and quantitative simulation. In this paper, the system dynamics is used as the main analysis method, and construct the causal feedback model of urban spatial growth mechanism and stock flow chart, also analyzes the influence of different scenarios simulation on urban spatial growth under the new normal. Finally, the concrete path of the urban space transformation and the government’s response is put forward.This paper is organized as follows:The first chapter is the introduction. This paper mainly introduces the research background, goal and the significance. Combed the domestic and foreign related literature research and practical case, this paper determines the research content, framework and research methods based on present research ideas.The second chapter is the analysis of the urban space growth mechanism under the old normal conditions. Based on the background of urban rapid expansion and the impact of the policy, this paper systematically analyzes the driving subjects of urban spatial growth:the role of government, economic organizations and social forces.The third chapter is the selection and construction of the system dynamics model. The study selects the urban growth’s main driving subjects and the growth mechanism as the research goal. This paper also selects the influential factors and establishes the system dynamics based on the urban space growth causality diagram with the important feedback loops. Finally, this study set up a system flow chart as quantitative research.The fourth chapter is the simulation of urban spatial growth under the affection of the environment. Taking Hangzhou City as the main reference case, combined with the economic and social development data, this paper set constraints of quantitative indicators to quantitative simulation under the old normal and the new normal.The fifth chapter is the countermeasures for the transformation of urban space under the new normal conditions. According to the results of the simulation in the fourth chapter, provide a reference for the government decision-making and planning research.The last chapter is the conclusion part.