Construction And Application Of Integrated Urban Industry Growth Model Based On System Dynamics

Since the founding of PRC, rapid industrial growth has lifted China out of poverty, but we also paid a heavy price for ecological environment. At present, the general industrialization and urbanization of urban combine the generalization and aggregation of industrial park of China, has caused tight resource constraints, serious environmental pollution and ecology system degradation, all of the situation had limited the development of industry. The rapid expansion of industrial land and the air pollution caused by increased industrial firing coal has indirectly or directly led to nationwide fog weather since 2012, which caused a consistent focus on ecological environmental problems of China in both China and abroad. Meanwhile, frequent industrial pollution events make alarm to the unreasonable planning of urban industry again and again. When the fresh air, clean water, safe food, even the blue sky become people’s extravagant hopes, the development of urban industrial growth calls for a global, quantitative scientific model to contro l the development speed and the planning layout of industrial growth in order to achieve the sustainable development of industry, environment, ecology and society. This study aims at establishing the connection between the industrial growth and ecological environment through the system dynamics method, and then provide basis for development speed and planning layout of industry on urban and regional planning level.Research firstly illustrates the subjective evaluation of industrial environment and the objective composition characteristics of industrial envrionment. Study firstly focus on the history of industry development, clarify the industrial growth and related theory. Then analysis the growth pattern of ecological industry and the recovery of industrial ecological environment, in view of the actual situation of urban industry growth, subjective evaluation and landscape composition analysis of industrial environment have been carried out in 8 cities of northern China, the result reveals the current situation of industrial environment and the needs of the masses of northern China, and meanwhile, clarify the relationships among the evaluation factors, respondents attribute and the landscape composition. Then the system framework of the urban industrial growth has been established through combining the preliminary analysis of survey data and industrial growth pattern research.Then research build integrated urban industry growth model based on system dynamics. Research clarified the controlling factors and their causal relationships of industry, population, urban economy, environment and landscape ecology 5 system parts through literature review, main factor analysis and composition analysis and other methods, then constructed the integrated urban industrial growth system dynamics model through combining the 5 subsystems. Then, training model with 2005-2009 data of industrial city, Harbin, Verified the model by the fit of running, logical structure, prediction accuracy and applicability four methods. Different from traditional method of linear static landscape index prediction based on GIS, this model has a multidimensional nonlinear function of dynamic prediction, policy makers can predict future change of landscape index to achieve the purposes of control the industrial growth speed. Moreover, the applicability results show that the number of enterprises growth with “ S style growth mode” effects minimal on landscape ecology in a certain range under the same external conditions.This study found the dispersible urban space landscape pattern is more suitable for landscape ecological protection under industry growth. In order to explore the most suitable mode of urban spatial pattern for industry growth, a hypothetical simulation research of industrial cities spatial pattern has been carried out by applying integrated urban industrial growth system dynamics model combined landscape ecological risk evaluation method. Comparing the different influences of landscape ecological risk among centralized pattern and thre e types of dispersible pattern(green corridor mode, satellite city mode and resources dispersible mode) of the same city, under the same policy and industrial development speed. Simulation results show that the dispersible city is more advantageous than c entralized city for landscape ecological development and environmental protection in the future, reveal the relationships among the urban dispersion degree, environment pollution factors and landscape indices.Research proposed the strategy of the urban la yout planning for industry growth. In order to make the model results visual expression and present industrial planning layout strategy, simulations have been carried out on industrial growth indices of Ha Da Qi industrial corridor and its contained Harbin, Daqing etc. five industrial cities by combining quantitative relationships of industrial growth model with the parameters visual function of Grasshopper software. Then, presenting general development strategy of industrial city on the basis of ecological environment protection by comparing city industrial growth surface and government planning. This study achieved the purpose of adjusting the industrial growth speed and urban planning layout by applying system quantitative method, through the conversion of qualitative—quantitative—visualization between industrial growth and ecological environment.