Risk Evaluation On Q Power Battery Product Development

With the rapid development of international economy and steady improvement of residents living standard in recent years, lots of OEMs, colleges and other research institutes all over the world are devoting themselves to the R&D of new energy vehicles in succession, aiming to response and improve the series of problems that the increasing vehicle numbers has brought up. Electric vehicle(EV) takes power battery as its only power source, which could satisfy operation requirements of all vehicle components, thus, the development of power battery becomes the key step during vehicle development. In order not to effect the development of vehicle product and break through the bottleneck of power battery development, it’s essential to conduct deep and detailed research on the risk recognition and evaluation of power battery development.As a product with advanced technology in recent years, the risks of power battery development mainly exist in technology and market. Power battery is the only power source of electric vehicle, since its technical research is still in exploration stage and power battery has high complexity and low maturity in technology, technical risks will become the key risk during power battery development. Besides, market risks is also one of the important risk items of power battery product development, including the acceptance and purchasing requirement of consumers, the product development ability of other competitors and the response after product launching into market, and supplier selection of each component and so on.This paper takes the development of Q power battery product as the main object of study, first clarifies the research background and significance of this paper, summarizes the current research status on recognition and evaluation of project risks all over the world, and makes brief introduction of the background and target of Q power battery product development project; then, expounds basic definitionson product development project, project risk management, project risk recognition and evaluation in detail, and introduce the information of their characteristics, classificationat the same time, then puts forward the method of risk recognition that this paper adopts; afterwards, divides the whole procedure of Q power battery product development into product scheme period, product design period and product validation period with WBS method,, and then recognize the technical and market risks of Q power battery product development on the basis of these three periods, there’re 12 technical risk factors and 7 market risk factors in total; finally, puts forward the risk evaluation method that this paper applies based on the main characteristics of power battery product development risks. Because of the lack of power battery development project information at present, and the impact of majority of risks cannot be quantified directly, thus AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is proper to be adopted to its risk evaluation.The paper uses AHP for the hierarchical division of the risk factors that have been recognized, confirming a hierarchical structure with Q power battery development risks as target layer, technical and market risks as criterion layer, 12 technical risk factors and 7 market risk factors as scheme layer, and confirm the range of evaluation score according to the extent of risk impact; then, paired comparison method is adopted to compare the importance between different criterion layers and scheme layers within a same criterion layers, determining the judgment matrixes of technical and market risks, and complete the normalization and consistency judgment of matrix-vectors, deciding whether the matrix is available; after that, using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to construct the independent judgment matrix of technical and market risks respectively according to expert scores; finally, calculates the relative risk impact of each risk factor within scheme layer, and make final judgment on the level of technical and market risk according to the score range and corresponding risk levels which have been confirmed before.This paper will be composed on the basis of Q power battery product development, combining the basic theory of product development project, project risk management, project risk recognition and evaluation, recognizes and analyzes the possible technical and market risks before product development with WBS method, then evaluates the technical and market risks respectively with the application of AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, and finally makes detailed analysis on the evaluation result, which could be adopted as the basis of risk avoidance while developing power battery products in the future, ensuring the smooth going of product development.