Research On Risk Analysis And Regulatory Strategy Game Of Inland Dangerous Goods Transportation

As an important component of the transportation system,inland waterway shipping has become one of the mainstream modes of transportation of dangerous goods.In order to prevent various safety accidents in the transportation of dangerous goods in inland rivers as much as possible,it is necessary to establish more scientific and effective models to explore the risk context of the transportation system of dangerous goods in inland rivers.The occurrence of dangerous goods transportation accidents is closely related to the loopholes in government regulation,the safety awareness and safety investment of enterprises.Therefore,it is necessary to analyze the risks and supervision of the inland dangerous goods transportation system.The research content is as follows:(1)Based on the statistics of 34 dangerous goods transportation accidents that occurred between 2008 and 2020,five types of risk factors(24 sub indicators)affecting the transportation system were identified.Combining the Decision Lab Model(DEMATEL)and the Interpretative Structure Model(ISM),the risk network structure of the inland river dangerous goods transportation system was constructed using expert knowledge and experience,and then mapped to a Bayesian Network(BN)to achieve quantitative analysis of the impact intensity between various risk indicators.(2)Using evolutionary game theory,an evolutionary game model between government regulators and hazardous goods port enterprises is constructed,and the evolutionary results of the game system under five scenarios are analyzed.Secondly,taking public participation into account in the regulatory system,a tripartite evolutionary game model of public participation is constructed,and combined with system dynamics,Vensim PLE software is used to simulate the strategy selection mechanisms of various entities under different parameter changes.The following conclusions are obtained from this study:(1)Using the DEMATEL method,the causes and consequences of the risks in the inland waterway transportation system were identified.The top three indicators affecting the weight were crew safety responsibility awareness,professional quality,and the effectiveness of government supervision;Using the ISM method,the system is divided into different levels,and a hierarchical schematic diagram of the risk interpretation structure model for the inland dangerous goods transportation system is obtained,effectively handling the interaction relationship between various risk indicators.(2)The probability of occurrence of all indicators is calculated and ranked using Bayesian networks;Through sensitivity analysis,it is concluded that the indicator with the greatest impact on the system is the risk of insufficient professional quality.Using causal reasoning,it is deduced that when the risk has already occurred,the primary and secondary reasons are insufficient professional quality of the crew and the lack of effective government supervision.(3)The transportation behavior of dangerous goods port enterprises is affected by the amount of fines,the additional benefits of illegal transportation,and the probability of strict supervision by government regulatory authorities.When the amount of fines increases and the speculative gains from illegal transportation decrease,it can effectively guide dangerous goods port enterprises to carry out law-abiding transportation.When the expected losses of both parties in the game increase,the system will evolve towards an ideal stable point(1,1).(4)The public’s strategic choice mainly depends on the rewards and costs of monitoring and reporting.The higher the degree of public participation,the greater the probability that dangerous goods port enterprises choose to comply with the law in transportation;For regulatory authorities,public participation improves the regulatory effectiveness of the government and is conducive to forming a good collaborative regulatory mechanism.