Study On Life-cycle Cost Risks Of Green Building Project

Currently, the world is facing enormous challenges of environmental pollution and energy shortages, energy consumption in the construction industry accounted for a large proportion in the global energy consumption. Green buildings can not only reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but also reduce the carbon footprint, thus have the dual potential to address environmental and energy challenges. China is in a period of rapid development of urbanization and the annual increase of the construction area is huge, so it is urgent to develop green buildings. But the development of green buildings in China is shorter and policy, market, technology and other conditions are not perfect, there is a great cost risks in developing green building project. However, real estate business lacks experiences in understanding and controlling cost risks of green building projects, which seriously hampered its development initiative, thus restricting the development of green buildings. Therefore, study on life-cycle cost risks of green building project has great theoretical and practical values.By analyzing green building literatures from domestic and international, paper combed the research status and results in the field of green building, green building risk and risk management, explored the concept of green building, and used project life-cycle cost theory to divide green building into five phases, such as decision-making, design, construction, operation and maintenance, demolition recycling. In accordance with risk management literature from domestic and international, the attribute of risks expanded from the traditional two-dimensional to the four-dimensional properties which included probability, loss, controllability and management costs. Combining literature research, the principle of risk identification and the actual situation of China’s green building development, paper identified 36 cost risk factors in life-cycle of green building in phases, built life-cycle cost risk list of green building projects and analysis the meaning, impact of each risk factors. By comparing the advantages and disadvantages of common evaluation methods, combined with practical application needs, paper selected entropy method and TOPSIS method as green building life-cycle cost risk assessment method, and described the principles and calculation steps of the method. On the basis of risk avoidance, risk reduction, risk transfer, risk reserve these 4 kinds of commonly used risk coping strategies, paper analyzed the main cost risk factors in the life-cycle of green building projects, and put forward coping strategies and concrete measures of each risk factors.Finally, taking project C as an example, optimized the cost risk list by using the method of expert interview, and got the cost risk list made of 35 cost risk factors which accord with the actual situation of project. In order to get evaluation data of 35 cost risk factors’ four properties, questionnaires were given to the person who participates in project C; Taking decision-making stage as an example, paper used entropy method to calculate the weights of four attributes, and then used TOPSIS method to sort cost risk factors in decision-making stage; According to the results of sorting and combining with the real operation mode of company B, paper put forward coping measures of top 3 cost risk factors in each phase.