The Influences Of Complex Project’s Activities Uncertainties On Schedule Performance

In the fierce competition and high penalty market economy society, it is crucial to complete the project. Along with china’s reform and opening up more than 30 years, economic construction has been developing rapidly, large complex projects are increasing glowingly, such as:the world’s largest land reclamation project—— Shanghai Harbor City, the total investment is 25 billion Yuan; the world longest high –speed railway project—— Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway,the total investment is 220 billion Yuan. It’s one of the most concerning core issues for investors that completing a project within planned duration and delivering it timely; it’s also the most main content of project management, even for larger complex projects.Complex project contained high degree uncertainties, its’ uncertainties reflected coupling activities, recurrent overlapping activities, massive information iteration, long period and many times rework act. Due to the impact of project’s activities uncertainties, it’s generally impossible to complete complex project within planned duration and budget. Therefore, based on project duration,together with project cost and quality, regard them as schedule performance. In order to control the effects of project activities uncertainties on project schedule, from the aspect of overlapping activities,activities rework and activities iteration, studying their effects on schedule on performance.Therefore, this article undertakes research with respect to four aspects, firstly, On the basis of early information and completed information, this article analyses implementation of overlapping activities, using DSM to describe the influence of overlapping activities on rework, project schedule and quality loss; in order to benefit from overlapping activities, building the comprehensive benefit model function of overlapping activities. Secondly, in order to analyze the sequence iteration impact on project duration, studying that Markov chain estimated the duration of the coupling activities.Thirdly, in order to reflect project schedule state, using system dynamic method to simulate schedule state of project activities, mainly analyzing how output time factor modification influences the duration of activities, how input time factor modification influences the duration of activities, and identifying time factor that make project duration great fluctuation and project activities that is sensitive to time factor. Fourthly, regard "Ocean module rig construction project" as an example,analyzing overlapping activities effect on schedule performance, estimating activities iteration duration and simulating project schedule state, which verify above research rationality and validity and propose author suggestions for completing project.