Research On The Bus Capacity Dispatching Of Large-scale Activities In The City

With the development of social economy and the improvement of people’s living standard, more and more large‐scale events such as exhibition, sports events or recreational performances are held frequently in many cities in our country. In recent years, these events have been developed with the trend of becoming larger‐scaled, more influential and longer‐time lasted, which, however, have often caused disharmony such as traffic jam or accidents resulted from high intensity flow of passengers and vehicles. Therefore, it is of particular importance to maintain the normal operation of the urban transport system in order to ensure that all activity participants and cars arrive and evacuate quickly during the period of the large‐scale events. Bus, as a kind of large‐volume and high‐efficient means of transport, is commonly used as the main means of the gathering and distribution of the passenger flow during large‐scale events. Therefore, it is very necessary to research on how to dispatch bus capacity reasonably and to provide bus service of high quality to meet the travel demands during the period of large‐scale events.On the basis of summarizing the research findings of scholars at home and abroad, this paper began with the analysis of the traffic characteristics of large‐scale events and the characteristic of conventional bus capacity. It expounded the definition and classification of the large‐scale events, the characteristics of transport demand of the participants, the distributive regularities of time of the spectators and the characteristics of conventional public transport capacity dispatching. Then, based on the four‐stage method of transport planning, it respectively discussed and studied the predicting method of traffic generation both of the local and nonlocal spectators, the traffic distribution and division of the transportation means in the large‐scale activities. By proposing the allocation method of the bus line passenger flow, it provided supporting data for the transport capacity dispatching. Next, it discussed the dispatching of the conventional public transport capacity in large‐scale events based on the projection of bus line passenger flow. After that, it proposed the selection method for the overall projection, tactics and patterns of the transport capacity dispatching system, established the optimized model in the departure interval and solved it with Matlab. Lastly, by taking an forthcoming concert for example, it used the models and methods proposed in the paper mainly to apply the scheduling of the conventional public transport capacity after the concert is finished: firstly, forecasted the bus line passenger flow after the concert was finished; then, made the conventional public transport capacity dispatching and optimized the departure intervals based on the spectators’ distribution regularity at the departure time and the public transport capacity demand.The application results show that the departure interval model and capacity dispatching methods proposed in this paper laid a certain foundation on the improvement of the urban transport organization and management theory, which, of certain degree, can be the guidance and reference to the management of the conventional public transport capacity in large‐scale events.