| With the introduction of "Code of bills of quantities and valuation for construction works" (GB50500-2013), BOQ valuation model has been entered a new stage of fine management of whole process. However, as the construction project of our country has the characteristics of large quantity and long construction period, the elements of project cost can be easily affected by many factors, including social environment, technological level, economic conditions and climatic environment, which all lead to the issue that the price might fluctuate greatly, it is difficult for the owners to control the investment and the contractors to keep the cost in control. This paper focuses on the dynamic analysis of the main influential factors on the project cost, and puts forward the reasonable prediction index and formula, which has important practical significance for the owners and contractors to effectively control the project cost in its implementation stage of construction project.This paper first reviews the development of domestic and foreign construction cost pricing model, and the differences and relations of bill quantities and fixed pricing have been analyzed and compared, pointing out the necessity in the full implementation of engineering quantity list valuation in China, bill of quantities can be of real value in achieving the goal of the engineering cost reform and the formation of our country’s market price, and it is also beneficial to the healthy development of the construction market; Then the related content of "Code of bills of quantities and valuation for construction works" (GB50500-2013) have been introduced as well as the valuation’s preparation process and the cost composition; With the basis of calculating the engineering cost of a certain high-rise residential building in Shenyang, the price adjustment formula has been used to analyze the factors of influencing cost. The results show that the labor cost and material cost are the main influencing factors of the construction cost, and the steel and cement are the main affecting factors of the materials cost; In order to enable the owners and contractors to reasonably forecast and control the main influencing factors of the cost, this paper later analyzes the trend of China price index and takes account of the influencing factors of construction cost to set up a grey GM(1,1) prediction model of artificial cost, material cost, steel and cement using the China constrution industry price index in nearly 10 years. Finally, the cost prediction index and the formula has been put forward with the pass of accuracy testing, and it can thus provide the very basis for each participant to reasonably control the project cost of practical engineering. |
