Research On Risk Coupling Of Highway Traffic Safety Based On Catastrophe Theory

With the rapid increases of the vehicle ownership and the highway mileage, traffic accidents occur frequently. It is a problem that needed to be solved to reduce the probability of the traffic accident and keep the highway safety status stable. The coupling of highway risk factors leads to the catastrophe of highway safety status, which result in traffic accidents. Therefore, the concept of the risk coupling degree is put forward in this paper, the quantitative analysis of the risk factor coupling severity is made and the evolution process of the highway safety status is analyzed at the same time. The research content contains:(1) Through the statistical analysis of the highway traffic accident data, the main risk factors that influence the highway safety status are selected by using the grey correlation analysis method. Dealing with the highway traffic accident data of the road traffic accident statistics annual report, the grey correlation degrees of risk factors both in the aspects of accident liability and the harmfulness are calculated separately, and the main risk factors are selected according to the correlation degree.(2) The concept of the traffic safety risk coupling is put forward and the coupling degree of highway risk factors is analyzed by using the multiple criteria evaluation method based on the catastrophe theory for the first time. On the premise of avoiding weight, the main risk factors are used to build the catastrophe model of the risk coupling degree that analyzes the risk coupling effect objectively and acquires the calculation figure of the risk coupling degree.(3) Building the cusp catastrophe model based on the catastrophe theory to analyze the change process and the region division of the highway safety status, which is verified by using the actual data and used to predict the safety status. For the first time, analyzing the change process of the highway safety status based on the catastrophe theory, and acquiring the boundary condition of the safety status catastrophe that are the basis of dividing the safety status into the stable region, the critical stable region and the unstable region. The actual accident data is used to judge and predict the highway safety status, and the correctness of the region division of the safety status and the prediction result are verified by the cusp catastrophe theory.(4) Combined the calculation method of the risk coupling and the research method of the highway safety status based on the catastrophe theory to build the simulation model of the highway traffic safety status, whose correctness is verified by using the traffic accident data of the road traffic accident statistics annual report. Through the analysis of the different assumptions that single risk factor changes and multiple risk factors change, the influence of the risk coupling on the highway safety status is analyzed further.