| According to the demand of rainfall flood resources utilization of Longtan reservoir, this thesis bases on change-point and fuzzy theory to do the research of flood season staging operation.Firstly, the thesis bases on years of daily average discharge data of Longtan reservoir, uses maximum sampling and peaks-over-threshold sampling method to get the daily maximum flood peaks or flood volume and discharge over threshold probability series. Then analyzes the series by using even change-point analysis method and probability change-point analysis method, also makes hypothesis tests to make sure the distribution of the series is admissible and the change points are exist. Eventually determines the pre-flood season is from Apr.1st to Jun.7th, the major flood season is from Jun.8th to Sept.1st, and the latter flood season is from Sept.2nd to Oct.31st.Secondly, this thesis based on mathematical statistics, nonparametric bootstrap sampling, relative membership degree and two-stage fuzzy relative membership degree theory to test the rationality of stage number and stage point quantificationally. The calculations indicate that the flood season staging result of Longhand reservoir based on change-point method is reasonable.And then, based on fuzzy description form of flood season, the thesis uses empirical approach and parameter fitting in the fuzzy sets analysis of flood season staging, to analyze the daily average data of Longtan reservoir from 1960 to 2012. The resulting experience membership degree and theoretical membership function can be used to calculate the theoretical flood control capacity.Finally, the theoretical operation curve of Longtan reservoir is computed by using the theoretical flood control capacity. On this basis, through the comparative analysis between the current and theoretical operation curves, the thesis optimizes the impoundment process in the latter flood season to get the suggested optimal flood control operation curve. |
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