Research On The Prediction Of Highway Pavement Performance

With the social and economic progress, the construction of China’s highway has developed rapidly in recent years, and the traffic also has increased a lot. Over time, the times of the loads acting on the road has also increased sharply, plus the impact of environmental and other natural factors, pavement performance of highway would be in a recession trend. When the decay of pavement performance comes to a certain extent, the highway will no longer be in a good level of service, so it’s necessary to have a comprehensive study on highway pavement performance.The content of Pavement Performance includes evaluation of pavement performance and prediction of pavement performance. On the base of introducing the disease of highway pavement and analysis the reason caused the disease, combining with the investigation of the disease of Jie-Shui highway, this paper analyses the factors affecting the pavement performance in details. combined the foregoing and the existing pavement evaluation system, this paper chooses pavement condition index(PCI), Riding Quality Index(RQI), Rutting Depth Index(RDI), Skidding Resistance Index(SRI) as individual Pavement Performance evaluation. Taking the pavement system’s gray characteristic into consideration, choose an evaluation model based on gray correlation degree to evaluate the highway pavement performance comprehensive evaluation comprehensively.Pavement performance prediction can provide reference for preventive maintenance, both China and other countries has done a lot of research on pavement performance prediction. But the pavement is a complex system and the factors affecting pavement performance is various and uncertain, it’s impossible that a model can predict the whole pavement performance. Through the comparative analysis of the current characteristics of each pavement performance prediction model, combined with China’s national conditions and Jie-Shui highway’s actual situation which is that the number of traffic data collection is less, the paper decides to choose gray model to predict pavement performance, but this model is lack of fitting the long-term data and Markov theory can do this perfectly. This paper predicts pavement performance based on the combination of gray prediction model and Markov prediction model, and the prediction results proved to be consistent with the pavement performance decay law.In order to make the highway can keep in a good level of service in a long period, maintenance and repair measures need to be taken to remove all the disease on the pavement. Based on the pavement performance prediction, the analysis of the decay law pavement can provide a theoretical basis for pavement in the future period. Through the study of the process of maintenance decision, refer to the relevant literature and standards, this paper divides the maintenance sections of Jie-Shui highway and makes recommendations for each of the maintenance sections with consideration their actual situation.