| In order to cope with global climate change and improve energy utilization efficiency, power industries around the world have begun to carry out exploration and practice in the smart grid. For the operational management subjects of power system, smart grid brings them some new challenges as renewable energy participates in the operational management of generation side and connects to the grid, power dispatching changes from energy scheduling to load scheduling, and the user side involves in the operational management through the intelligent two-way interactive system. Compared with traditional power system, smart grid makes power flow, information flow and fund flow blend together, which injects new vitality into the power system as well as increases some risk to the operational management subjects.In this new situation, based on the theory of power risk element transmission, this dissertation makes modeling analysis of the operational management risk element transmission in the generation side, grid side and user side respectively under the environment of smart grid from the operational management subject dimension. And then the smart grid operational management decision support system (SGOM-RDSS) based on risk element transmission model is discussed. The research achievements of this thesis are mainly reflected in the following five aspects:(1) The smart grid operational management theory was studied, and the three-dimensional modeling of smart grid operational management risk element transmission was put forward. Drawing upon the power risk element transmission theory, and combined with the analysis of smart grid operational management risk, this paper proposed the three-dimensional modeling approach of smart grid operational management risk element transmission from the demission of smart grid operational management risk transmission participants, the demission of risk element transmission methods and the demission of risk element transmission path.(2) Considering the participation of renewable energy in the operational management in generation side under the environment of smart grid, and taking the wind power as an example, the risk element transmission models of wind power’s own operational management and wind-fire joint operational management were constructed. As the two main lines of wind power’s own operational management, the wind power feed-in tariff and grid electricity were discussed respectively to build risk element transmission models and make operational management risk analysis. To make up for the intermittency and randomness of wind power, the wind-fire joint operational management pattern was adopted. Starting from load forecast risk element, fuel price risk element, feed-in-tariff risk element and wind power output risk element, the risk element transmission model of wind-fire joint operational management was put forward to study the influence of risk element fluctuation on its overall revenue.(3) Considering the new challenges of smart grid to operational management in grid side, risk element transmission model of operational management in grid side was built from five aspects of smart grid investment projects, load forecast, market purchasing of power, intelligent scheduling and information security. For the funds allocation of smart grid investment projects, the hierarchical risk element transmission model was proposed considering nature risk element, management risk, technology risk element, market economy risk element and policy risk element. As the implementation of smart grid proposes higher demand to load forecast, the smart grid load risk element forecast model based on MFGM was put forward. In view of the changes of market purchasing under the circumstance of smart grid, based on load forecast, feed-in-tariff and renewable energy output uncertainty, market purchasing optimization model considering risk element transmission was constructed. As to the important influence of smart grid scheduling subjective information’s uncertainty on scheduling results, the smart grid scheduling risk element transmission model considering information uncertainty was established. Considering the uncertainty of smart grid business information transfer process, the information security risk element transmission model employing absorbing Markov Chain was present to analyze the severity of consequences due to the security incident of information system.(4) The smart grid operational risk transmission model considering the participation of user side was put forward. With regard to two demand response ways based on motivation and price, interruptible load and peak-valley tou price were taken as typical examples to build system backup configuration model with the participation of interruptible load and considering risk element transmission, as well as the grid revenue risk element transmission model considering the implementation of peak-valley tou price, to do risk analysis of users’participation in operational management. In the aspect of power supply in user side, this paper studied distributed generation and electric car’s participation in the operational management of micro grid. Then the multi-objective optimization model of micro grid operational management considering cost, pollution and risk (risk element transmission) was constructed and niche particle swarm optimization algorithm was used to solve the model.(5) The SGOM-RDSS based on risk element transmission model was studied. To improve the decision efficiency of smart grid operational management, considering the risk element transmission model mentioned in this paper, the research on the design of model-driven SGOM-RDSS was carried out. Based on the functional requirements analysis, the architecture design and function design of SGOM-RDSS were put forward, and the key matching technologies such as the extraction of important risk elements, data interaction and model self-defining were discussed. |
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