Modeling And Analysis Of Oil-saving Pathways For Road Passenger Transport In China Based On Cost-optimization

The rapid growth of vehicle stock has caused tremendous challenge on oil securityand air pollution in China. It has become a common understanding that new energy andenergy saving vehicle should be used in road passenger transportation sector to saveoil-based fuels. Though the development of new energy and energy saving vehicles ispromising, it will be influenced by many uncertain factors, such as fuel supply andtechnology development condition. Therefore, how will the road passenger transportsector choose fuel and power train technologies under influences from these uncertainfactors has become an important question. Though there are already many researches inthe area of vehicle fuel and power technologies, earlier studies mainly focused on theassessment of certain technology pathways. There is a lack of analysis on pathwayselections under influence from uncertain factors, especially uncertain factors related tocosts.With this background, super structure modeling method and scenario analysismethod are used in this thesis to study the pathway selection and energy consumption ofChinese road passenger transport sector and analysis influences of key uncertain factors.Firstly, based on super structure modeling a cost-optimization model is built tostudy the selection of fuel and power train technology of Chinese road passengertransportation sector. Based on this model, the constitution of fuel and power traintechnology and the energy consumption from2011to2030in the basic scenario arederived. Then, key uncertain factors are recognized in step-by-step process. Thirdly, keyuncertain factors are used as dimensions to build different scenarios. Results from thesescenarios reflect influences of key uncertain factors. A superior development scenario isthen suggested.In the basic scenario which is the present trend, hybrid vehicles will substitutetraditional gasoline/diesel ICE vehicles in the near future. Light duty passenger vehicleswill show an obvious change from gasoline towards diesel. BEVs (battery electricvehicles) and HFCVs (hydrogen fuel cell vehicles) will only be used in medium andheavy duty passenger vehicles after2020. In terms of energy consumption, oil-basedfuel will still supply the main consumption. Share of diesel will grow. Electricity and hydrogen will be used late and in small amount but will high potential. Compared to thecondition that future constitution of fuel and power train technologies keeps the same asin2010, the utilization of new energy vehicle will reduce2.25billion toe of petroleumproducts from2011to2030.Supply of natural gas, price of gasoline and diesel, purchase cost of BEVs andpurchase cost of HFCVs are the key uncertain factors to influence the upgrading processof passenger road transportation sector. ICE vehicles which use natural gas haveobvious advantage in the aspect of economy. Due to the limited supply of natural gas, inthe long term future, supply of natural gas as fuel for vehicles will fall short of demand.Gasoline consumption is rigid, while diesel consumption is largely changeful. Enlargedsupply of natural gas and lower purchase cost of new energy vehicles will reducepetroleum consumption in an evident manner.