Passenger Transport Traffic Forecast And Schedule Of Public Transport Operating Road

With the acceleration of urbanization and regional economic integration, thecommunication between people is becoming increasingly close, the requirements forquantity and quality of travel tools is gradually improving. All over the country hascontinuously reformed the road passenger transportation for public transportation since2004.However, the enterprise lacks the analysis and prediction for passenger flow volumeafter the reform in the reform of road passenger transportation lines, besides, theestablishment of schedules is not reasonable, which leads to a series of problems such as theinsufficient of transportation capacity, the long time of waiting. Therefore, studying theprediction of passenger flow volume after the reform of road passenger transportation andestablishing the schedules scientifically and reasonably has important theoretical andpractical significance.The study analyze the advantages, preconditions and problems of public transportationbase on the road passenger transportation development history, present situation anddevelopment trend. Basing on the increase of passenger flow after the public of roadpassenger transportation, the study divide the increase into two groups: trend passenger flowvolume, induction passenger flow volume. And then select GM(1,1) model, gravity modelrespectively for the prediction of passenger flow volume according to their characteristics.With a predicted growth rate, the study can obtain the predicted section passenger flowvolume after handling the investigative section passenger flow volume, and then establishthe schedules.