Research On Constructional Engineering Bidding Model Based On Simulation And Its Application

Bidding quotation, a compulsory course for construction enterprises, is critical totheir survival and development. In the fierce market competition, in order to win thebidding, as well as maximize the benefits, the bidder should determine a reasonablebidding price according to the project, instead of forcing down the price or raise theprice blindly. Therefore, determining a reasonable bidding price according tocompetitors’ bidding strategy plays a key role in the decision making for bidding. Interms of both theoretical research and instance analysis, this thesis analyzescompetitors’ bidding price in Hunan Province’s constructional engineering bidding,proposes bidding strategy accordingly, adopts comprehensive evaluation method, andbuilds bidding quotation model based on simulation as well, intending to study therelationship between bidding quotation and the number of bidders.In the first place, this thesis analyzes the current method and model for biddingat the theoretical level. Bidding quotation method mainly includes direct costquotation, which is the most primitive and common one, and prediction quotation,which is based on mark-up. The focus of competing lies in profit and rationality, thus,the bidding quotation model is classified into single-factor quotation model andmulti-factor bidding quotation model. It also puts forth an overall evaluation ofadvantages and disadvantages of the fundamentals, on which the current model isbased. Besides, analysis is also made on several methods for bid evaluationregulations for Hunan Province’s housing construction and municipal engineeringconstruction, which reveals characteristics and problems of bid evaluation method.This thesis also summarizes the cause of the discrepancy in the bidding, and thefactors which influence the bidding quotation. At the same time, it classifiescompetitors’ bidding quotation into three categories---high quotation, low quotationand modest quotation, and proposes strategy accordingly.Besides, combined with the study above and comprehensive evaluation method,it analyzes characteristics of three kinds of bidding quotation and characteristics ofcommon distribution functions, selecting Beta distribution as bidding competitors’quotation distribution.In terms of quotation simulation, a bidding quotation model based oncomprehensive evaluation method and stochastic simulation method is built---firstly,select the distribution type of quotation according to the analysis of characteristics of hypothetical situation. Secondly, choose comprehensive evaluation method as bidevaluation method. Thirdly, build bidding quotation model based on simulation withthe help of Matlab. Fourthly, propose the concept of optimum quotatio. Finally, theoptimum quotatio with the highest score will be obtained after simulated by runningthe model, and the distribution of optimum quotatio will be obtained as well by takingadvantage of probability and statistics. By studying the relationship between optimumquotatio and the number of bidders with the help of linear fitting, a linear equationwill be obtained and a parameters testing will be performed subsequently.In the end, this thesis takes a concrete example as a study case to simulate thebidding quotation model, obtaining the distribution that optimum quotatio follows andthe linear relationship between optimum quotatio and the number of bidders, anddetermining the price range and bidding strategy in different quotation situations.Andthe actual bid quotes simulation results verify the correctness.