| With the development of the construction industry,construction enterprises as an important participant in the construction industry,its market competition environment with the gradual increase of participants become more and more intense,in order to contract construction projects in the market,but also on the construction enterprises in the bidding stage of the quotation preparation quality also put forward higher requirements.Dosage of steel at the same time there are big,the price is high,the price is the characteristics of dynamic change over time,part of the construction enterprise in the preparation of tender offer use steel prices tend to make inquiries through the market or government guidance price included in the offer,the price of steel is less consider the dynamic change over time,led to the winning cause both contracting contract disputes and even after the risk of litigation and arbitration.At present,ARIMA model,which is often used in steel price prediction,cannot analyze the steel price change rule due to its limited order and short forecast period.This study introduced X-13A-S method for steel prices to study the change rule,and connecting with the construction enterprise under the environment of different bidding quotation method,put forward the price of steel selection method more accord with the interests of the enterprise itself,aimed at resolving the construction enterprise the problem of how to select the steel prices in the tender offer,the construction enterprise to optimize the tender offer.First of all,the research progress at home and abroad is summarized,mainly for the steel price research progress and scholars to optimize the bidding offer to take two aspects of the method is summarized,and the existing problems are summarized.Because monthly steel prices have time series characteristics,and X-13A-S method can establish reg ARIMA model for steel prices at the same time for steel price prediction and analysis of the law of change.Based on the different bidding strategies of construction enterprises and the analysis results of steel price by X-13A-S method,this paper provides a calculation method of calculating steel price for construction enterprises based on different bidding strategies,in order to make up for the shortage of relying on inquiry,government-guided price and other methods and less considering the future changes of steel price.Secondly,the steel price is analyzed and the model is built.The monthly steel price series is analyzed by X-13A-S method,and compared with ARIMA model commonly used in steel price prediction.The results show that based on X-13A-S method of steel price analysis results can not only long-term projections for steel,and steel prices can be cycle sequence is decomposed into trend factor,seasonal factor and irregular factor,is convenient to analyze the history of steel prices change rule,and to quantify the weight of each influence factors on the steel price changes,This method is suitable for residential construction projects with a long construction period.As ARIMA model is limited by its own order,it can only make short-term prediction,which is not suitable for construction projects with a long construction period.Finally,based on different bidding strategies,the paper puts forward the steel price calculation method for construction enterprises.According to the characteristics of each influencing factor of steel price and steel price forecast data,the paper puts forward the method of how to calculate steel price based on their own interests under different bidding strategies,such as bidding high bid and bidding low bid.At the same time,through the inquiry,ARIMA model and X-13A-S analysis results of steel price,combined with the steel price calculation method proposed in this paper,we can see that the X-13A-S method of steel price analysis results combined with the steel price calculation method is feasible in the construction enterprise bidding quotation way. |
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