Research On The Emergency Logistics Channel Reliability Evaluation Based On Catastrophe Theory

In recent years,all kinds of natural disasters take place in China.Meteorologicaldisasters, geological disasters, marine disaster, such as hydrological disasters causedheavy losses of lives and property of the people every year. To Strengthen disaster earlywarning and prevention is the duty of the governments all of the world,because itbelongs to the beforehand control and very important.But at the same time whendisasters inevitably happens,timely disaster relief is particularly important.Since thematerials transportation scheduling under the emergency condition has the followingcharacteristics, such as sudden, unpredictability, timeliness, weak economy,unconventional and so on.So the emergency logistics become one of the researchhotspots.Emergency logistics corridor is an important part of emergency logisticssystem,and is the material basis on effective operation for the effective logistics. Thereliability of the emergency logistics corridor in emergency rescue is an importantmeasure of the emergency rescue response ability index.In the thesis,the subject is selection and evaluation of emergency logistics corridorreliability.First, the concepts and classification of logistics corridor and emergencylogistics are discussed.It based on the research situation of domestic and foreign andsummarizes the concept of emergency logistics corridor.In addition,it introduces theCatastrophe theory from the concept,mechanism,characteristics and application.Then from the structure of the emergency logistics corridor view,the thesisanalyzes the main factors influencing the reliability of the emergency logistics corridors,according to the principle of the representative and independent, scientific andoperability,qualitative and quantitative combination, continuous and dynamic, generalityand expansibility, combining comprehensiveness and comparability,universal anddevelopment,comprehensive and comparable combination and built evaluation indexsystem of emergency logistics corridors reliability composed of logistics corridorstechnology,environment,management and facilities.In addition,the thesis analyses thespecific indicators of screening and quantitative methods.The thesis compares with the expert qualitative judgment method,comprehensiveevaluation method,the AHP, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,the DEA and othermethods, establishes evaluation model based on Catastrophe evaluation method.Finally,a case study is given to verify the feasible and effective of the evaluation index system,evaluation model and method．...