Analysis, Predication And Warning On Carrying Capacity Of Resources And Environments For Livestock And Poultry

Environment pollution such as water,soil and air pollution caused by livestock breeding arised earlier in some countries and regions with developed livestock industry. In recent decades, with the rapid development of livestock industry, pollution from livestock and poultry breeding has become one of the main factors of agricultural non-point source pollution in developing countries and regions. Environment pollution caused by large-scaled livestock breeding presents as a large amount of waste, pretty serious pollution and seriously threat to the environment quality of cities in China. And such pollution has become an common issue concerned by both developed and developing countries.Erhai Lake in Dali Prefecture as a specially protected water should meet the functional requirements of Ⅱ Water environmental function zone. According to the findings of 17 large-scale livestock farm in Dali, Erhai Lake has become a major contaminants for receiving livestock pollution. In order to effectively protect the ecology of Erhai Lake and promote sustainable development of livestock and poultry breeding, this study innovatively combined SD-AHP and AHP-FCE method to evalute resources and environment carrying capacity of livestock and poultry. The main results are as follows:(1) Based on the summary and refining the main points about previous definition of environmental carrying capacity and environmental carrying capacity of livestock. Resources and environment carrying capacity of livestock and poultry is defined as the ability of livestock environmental systems that can support livestock behavior with, keeping a balance and healthy in a specific time and space.(2) As the system boundaries are fixed, livestock environmental systems are classified into resources environment system, social environment system and livestock environment system. And resources and environment carrying capacity evaluation system for livestock and poultry is established.(3) System dynamics model are used to analyze the trend and variation reasons of resources and environment carrying capacity of livestock and poultry in Dali prefecture. For example, the introduction of livestock and supply of feed was perniciously influenced by "SARS" in 2003, which made livestock and poultry manure emissions intensity significantly reduced compared to the previous year and resources and environment carrying capacity of livestock and poultry in Dali prefecture has a peak value in 2003.(4) Baesed on the simulation results of system dynamics model, multi-level fuzzy warning model was uesed for warning the security of livestock environment system within a period of time and the results show that resources and environment carrying capacity of livestock and poultry in Dali Prefecture is at the mediun state.(5) According to the development level of Dali prefecture,we designed resource-saving, environmental protection, livestock growth and coordinated development for scenario analysis by adjusting the parameters of the simulation, and four models were all compared with conventional development model. It turns out that excepting livestock growth development model, the resources and environment carrying capacity of livestock and poultry in Dali prefecture under resource-saving development mode, environmental protection development model and coordinated development model are increased in various degrees. On the long-term consideration, carrying capacity trends under the coordinated development model present as a strong growth, and can be used to improve resources and environment carrying capacity of livestock and poultry, promote sustainable development livestock industry as quickly as well, have a good directive significance for the development planning of Dali prefecture with more potential.