Evaluation And Prediction Of Environmental Carrying Capacity Of Livestock And Poultry Breeding In Changtu County

Since the reform and opening up,people’s demand for agricultural and livestock products has continued to grow,and the share of agricultural and livestock products consumption is also increasing.Livestock and poultry breeding has become a very important part of China’s economic development.At the same time,China’s animal husbandry gradually to intensive,professional development,the proportion of large-scale animal husbandry increased year by year,resulting in more and more serious environmental pollution problems.In 2016,the Ministry of agriculture proposed the measure of "raising pigs in the South and raising pigs in the north",actively promoting the transfer of pig production to areas with large environmental capacity,such as northeast China.However,the development of animal husbandry in Northeast China can not be unlimited.Therefore,in-depth study on the environmental carrying capacity of livestock and poultry breeding will play a positive role in the scientific planning of Regional Livestock and poultry breeding,and promote the coordinated development of livestock and poultry breeding with economic development and resources and environment.Liaoning Province is listed as potential development area in the national pig industry development plan,and Zhong Chang Tu ranks first in 25 national pig transfer out counties in our province.In 2018,the output value of animal husbandry in Changtu County accounted for 44.7% of the output value of animal husbandry in Tieling City.At the same time,Changtu is also the second largest breeding County in China,and is the key development area of livestock and poultry breeding in our province.Therefore,this paper takes Changtu County as the research object,mainly from the following three aspects analysis and research:(1)Based on the analysis of relevant literature and the advice of 19 experts in animal husbandry,ecological environment management and agricultural management,this paper selects 25 indicators that affect the environmental carrying capacity of livestock and poultry breeding.According to the correlation analysis,the three indicators with strong correlation were eliminated,and the index system of livestock and poultry breeding environmental carrying capacity in Changtu County was further constructed.As far as the evaluation index system is concerned,it is specifically divided into social development subsystem,ecological environment subsystem,resource supply subsystem and livestock and poultry breeding subsystem,including a total of 22 indicators.(2)Based on the index data of tuxian county from 2010 to 2019,the analytic hierarchy process is used to calculate the index weight.The extreme value method is used to further quantify the evaluation index,and then the weighted sum is used to calculate the environmental carrying capacity of livestock and poultry breeding in Changtu County.In 2016,the highest value was 0.7673 in recent ten years,and the lowest value was 0.605 in 2011.The analysis showed that the evaluation index of ecological environment subsystem had a great impact on the environmental carrying capacity of livestock and poultry breeding.(3)In the analysis of the relationship between the evaluation indicators,the system dynamics method is used,and Vensim software is used to further make stock flow diagram and cause and effect loop diagram,which are used as the system dynamics model to establish the environmental carrying capacity of livestock and poultry breeding.There are five kinds of simulation modes,that is,current situation continuation,livestock and poultry priority,environmental protection,resource conservation and coordinated development.Through the simulation and measurement of the five schemes,the specific trend of environmental carrying capacity of livestock and poultry breeding in Changtu County from 2020 to 2030 is further simulated.The simulation results show that the coordinated development model is the ideal development mode of livestock and poultry industry in Changtu County,and the maximum breeding amount of Changtu County in 2030 is predicted to be 2.972 million pig equivalent.Finally,combined with the simulation results,from four aspects of livestock and poultry breeding,resource supply,ecological environment and social development,scientific decision-making was provided for the livestock and poultry breeding industry in Changtu County to achieve better and faster development.