Evaluation And Prediction Of Environmental Carrying Capacity Of Livestock And Poultry Breeding In Jilin Province

With the improvement of living standards,people’s demand for the quantity and quality of livestock and poultry products has gradually increased,so the livestock and poultry breeding industry has developed rapidly,and its breeding scale has continued to expand,so has its output value;However,the increasing livestock and poultry breeding wastes have a huge impact on the entire environmental system.When the environmental system exceeds the capacity limit,a large number of wastes will seriously affect and threaten the regional environmental quality,which restricts the development of livestock and poultry breeding industry.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the environmental carrying capacity of livestock and poultry breeding for rational planning of livestock and poultry breeding industry and realizing the coordinated development of livestock and poultry breeding industry,social economy and natural resources.The Fourteenth Five Year Plan for the Development of the National Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Industry clearly points out that Jilin Province should be planned and constructed as a superior production area of animal husbandry.Therefore,this paper takes Jilin Province as the research object,based on the theory of grey prediction system,ecological economics,sustainable development theory and other theories,and adopts the methods of literature analysis,entropy value method and gray correlation degree analysis,etc,The environmental carrying capacity of livestock and poultry in Jilin Province was evaluated and predicted.First of all,this paper describes the development of Jilin Province and animal husbandry;Secondly,through reading and sorting out the relevant literature,21 relevant influencing factors are summarized as evaluation indicators,and based on the idea of system,the environmental carrying capacity index system of livestock and poultry breeding in Jilin Province was further constructed from the four dimensions of livestock and poultry breeding,resource supply,ecological environment and social development;Then,based on the original index data from 2014 to 2021,the extreme value method is used to quantify on the basis of entropy method,and the environmental carrying capacity of livestock and poultry breeding in Jilin Province is calculated with the help of comprehensive evaluation model,Then the coupling coordination model is used to judge the coupling coordination state of the four subsystems in the livestock and poultry breeding environmental carrying capacity system;Finally,the GM(1,5)grey prediction model is constructed by calculating the size of grey correlation degree and combining the closely related influencing factors with the livestock and poultry breeding environmental carrying capacity to predict and analyze the future livestock and poultry breeding environmental carrying capacity.Through the above research,this paper draws the following conclusions:(1)The carrying capacity of livestock and poultry breeding environment in Jilin Province showed a continuous upward trend,and the upward trend was obvious.The four subsystems of livestock and poultry breeding,resource supply,ecological environment and social development all showed an upward trend.(2)During the study period,the coupling coordination degree of the system basically maintained a stable trend of continuous increase,and the coupling coordination state changed from moderate imbalance to mild imbalance to near imbalance.Although the whole is still on the verge of imbalance,it is gradually approaching the stage of coordinated development;(3)In the next few years,the carrying capacity of livestock and poultry breeding environment in Jilin Province will remain stable on the whole,with the value fluctuating around 0.76,but after2025,the carrying capacity of livestock and poultry breeding environment will show a downward trend,and the maximum difference is close to 0.06,which should be paid attention to.Trend.After a step-by-step analysis of the environmental carrying capacity of livestock and poultry breeding in Jilin Province,this paper promotes the sustainable development of livestock and poultry breeding in Jilin Province by promoting the integration of agriculture and animal husbandry,improving the level of facilities and strengthening the protection of natural resources.After a step-by-step analysis of the environmental carrying capacity of livestock and poultry breeding in Jilin Province,this paper promotes the sustainable development of livestock and poultry breeding in Jilin Province by promoting the integration of agriculture and animal husbandry,improving the level of facilities and strengthening the protection of natural resources.