Comprehensive Evaluation Of Tourists' Risk Awareness Of Qinling Rainstorm Disaster Based On Bounded Rationality

Tourism is currently relatively rapid developing in China, and has become an integral and important economic pillar of cities which have tourism industry.But tourism also has its own characteristics, very sensitive for natural disasters and vulnerable to external crises. As a result of these external factors having risk, the local tourism industry decline directly, such as a direct result of the earthquake in Sichuan Province is that number of tourists to go there plummeted, making the local tourism industry into a recession. For sub-degree of influence on the risk perception of tourism, how to defuse the crisis brought about by unfavorable factors has been a problem in the industry.In recent years, there are some points to explore in perception of risk, but the research on the impact risk perception about rainstrom disasters having on tourism still relatively scarce. In this paper, a case studied in seven scenic spots of Qinling Mountains, several important factors of risk perception of rainstrom were studied, finding out the forming the reasons and processing method about some problems.Qinling Mountains, as one of the main typical mountains in China, is the dividing line of climate of northern and southern part. So climate disparity in northern and southern part is sharp, and easily changeable climate change leads to endless weather, storm disasters happen frequently.With the recent rapid development of tourism, Qinling’s unique resources attract more and more tourists, as well as frequent rainstrom disasters produce more threat on personal property and safety of tourists and scenic spots.So the study on rainstorm disaster risk perception of tourists who travel to Qinling Mountains is particularly important, providing some suggestions for reference to tourism departments and other relevant departments, and making the appropriate contribution.to the development of tourism industry in China.In this study, on the base of referring to large number of documents relevant to understand domestic and international situation and progress of risk perception, the study on rainstorm disaster risk perception of tourists who travel to Qinling Mountains include knowledge of rainstorm disasters, attitudes to storm disasters,and behavior propending to when facing rainstrom disasters three aspects,which bounded rationality in economics and psychology discipline is innovatively introduced to remove irrational factors affect of the authenticity to the data among the access, the greatest degree of proximity to data authenticity. Combined with research methods in fuzzy mathematics discipline, tourists risk perception evaluation syetem of rainstorm disaster in Qinling Mountains based on bounded rationality was created to study storm disaster risk perception differences of tourists who travel to Qingling Mountains. A case study of tourists tarveling to seven scenic spots in Qinling Mountains was instantiated to validate scientifically of the evaluation system. Through case studies, differences of tourists’ risk perception about rainstorm disasters has been found out, which provide some reference to prevent from rainstroms disasters for the tourists themselves,senic spots and the government. In this study, the following four aspects analyzed was included:(1) The evaluation system of risk perception about rainstormsBased on referring to the situation of rainstorms disasters in Qinling Mountains, combined with the essence of previous studies, from knowledge of rainstorm disasters, attitudes to storm disasters, and behavior propending to when facing rainstrom disasters three aspects, differences of tourists risk perception ability about rainstorm disasters has been studied. And bounded rationality in economics and psychology discipline is innovatively introduced to remove irrational factors affect of the authenticity to the data among the access, the greatest degree of proximity to data authenticity.(2) The design and the rationality of the questionnaire surveyOn the basis of in reference to evaluation system of risk perception about rainstorm disasters, various indexes can be converted to the questionnaire. And through the questionnaire distributed to the investigators, the data was botained. Not only the questions of the questionnaire were carefully considered, but also assign points for the answers, according to the different categories of topics, supposed the principle is different. Such as the single topic selection questions using likert scale method to design, according to the answer tourists selected given to the location of the different grades; For the multiple choice questions, according to the proportion the number of topic answers tourists selected accouting for the total number of the topic answers to determine points assigned to the problem. Through the validity, reliability, recovery rate and effective inspection, the questionnaire proved to be designed sciencly, and can reflect the data.(3) The construction of calculation model of tourist risk perception about rainstorm disasters in Qinling MountainsAccording to the data obtained by the questionnaire, sort out it. First, determine the weight of subject, using the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) method which omitted consistency check steps in analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method, optimizing the model; For rank level of priority matrix, five levl division makes the data more detailed, using MATLAB powerful data processing ability at the same time to make the data more accurate and the conclusions more clear.Second, during the calculation of index of rationality, through the combination of the weight of the question and the points assigned, under the principle of digital signal processing, and using the MATLAB programming discrete data were converted to continuous data curve. And the index of rationality will be in the rational range of the fit curve.In the end, scores based on bounded rationality is that the socres calculated by the model multiple the index of rationality.(4) A case verified in seven scenic spots in Qinling MountainsThrough the calculation model applied to the questionnaire data getting from seven scenic spots in Qinling Mountains, the tourists risk perception about rainstorm disasters has been quantified. And through the analysis of it, a feasible method has been pointed out to reduce impact the rainstorm disasters having on local tourism.In this study, bounded rationality model in economics and psychology field was the first time to be introduced to the study on tourists risk perception about rainstorm disasters, and the qualitative description was converted to quantitative analysis. In the process of transformation, because the understanding of the human brain is bounded rational, the indicators selected are not able to completely evaluate the degree of bounded rationality of investigators. And in the fitting process, there are some errors in fitting function, making the calculation of rational index appear some errors. In the end, I hope that the later researchers will make up for deficiencies in this study, to make the results more closer to the truth, to provide some reference opinions for the relevant departments to guide practice, to guide practice in practice, and to make a certain contribution to the development of tourism in our country.