Analysis Of A Game With Bounded Rationality In Generator's Electricity Sale

Since the 1990s,in order to break the monopoly and introduce competition,the modern power market based on the power system has undergone extensive reforms.After the release of the "No.9 Document" in 2015,according to the structure of"Managing the Middle and Opening the Two",China's power market construction accelerated,and competitive markets on both sides of power generation and retail are taking shape.Under the situation of bidding online,how to generate more benefits by power generation companies using reasonable game strategies under the conditions allowed by the market is not only their own,but also a problem that all parties involved in power trading are very concerned about.For this reason,this paper focuses on the limited rational game in the power sales of power generation companies.The main work is as follows:(1)Firstly,it introduces the basic theories of game theory,bounded rationality and electricity market,and focuses on the theory of bounded rationality in psychology and its application in behavioral economics.Combined with the power sales decision of power generation enterprises,the information is further discussed.Incompleteness,cognitive bias and psychological preference of decision makers,and predictive bias have an impact on various irrational behaviors of power generation companies.Obviously,due to the existence of bounded rationality,classical game theory is no longer suitable for explaining and describing the electricity sales game of power generation enterprises.(2)Based on the estimation of power generation cost under incomplete information,an analysis method based on annual utilization hours and thermal coal price index is proposed.Based on the available annual utilization hours,the coal price index,etc.,the cost of power generation is obtained by means of curve fitting and consumption analysis,and the marginal cost of power generation is obtained.Due to the incomplete information,the accurate power generation cost is difficult to obtain.This paper analyzes the error confidence interval of the generated power generation cost by interval estimation method,and gives the possible range of power generation cost,which provides information support for discussing power generation enterprise power sales decision.(3)A limited rational dynamic Cournot game model based on cost is established for the limited rational game of power generation.Because the power commodity is homogenous,this paper chooses the Cournot model of production competition as the basic model of the game between enterprises.Considering that the game cannot reach equilibrium once,the decision makers will repeatedly play the game and learn and adjust in the game,and finally the game will be balanced.Therefore,this paper uses the relevant knowledge of evolutionary theory to carry out the adjustment of the Cournot model and establishes a dynamic game model of bounded rationality.Based on the cost analysis,the dynamic Cournot game model analysis based on quadratic cost function and the dynamic Cournot game model analysis based on interval cost are carried out.Studies have shown that using the second method can make the game results more complete and more comprehensive.In short,power generation enterprises inevitably have bounded rationality in the process of selling electricity.Therefore,this paper conducts a useful exploration of the limited rational game of power generation enterprises by measuring the power generation cost and improving the information mastered by decision makers.