Research On The Impact Of Macro-economic Management On The Volatility Of Stock Price

Real estate is an industry featured by policy sensitivity and intensive capital requirement, which closely associate the business with the public macroeconomic regulation and stock markets. Real estate stocks take the responsibilities of financing and resources allocation for the industry and are thought to serve as indications of economic health. Capital needs establish a close association between real estate developers and related stock markets which determines that public policies largely depend on influencing the stock market in order to play a role in the real estate industry. This article is mainly about using Fast ICA, Multiple Linear Regression and Statistic tests to find and manifest the key determinant among other factors which have influences on the real estate stock prices. It is supposed to conclude the effective and efficient guidance for public policies making from a comprehensive research on the’impact effect’imposed by macroeconomic policies changes on the fluctuation of real estate stock prices.Main points:(1) theoretically depicting the causes of the fluctuations within real estate stocks prices, including macroeconomic policies, causes from the companies, etc..(2) Analyzing the potential determinants of stock prices floating by using Fast ICA.(3) Describing the correlations between stock price and macroeconomic policies and building the model to analyze these interactions.(4) Manifesting the interaction and correlation between macroeconomic policies and real estate stock prices through multiple linear regression model which focuses on the short-term and long-term effects from policies to stock prices.(5) Developing the political suggestions.Conclusions:The real estate index is significantly impacted by three factors:(1) Land policies, especially the ones promoting mortgage differentiation;(2) Interest rate changes and the construction of public rental housing.(3) The Land Liquidation and Taxation policy, the increase of value-add pre-tax rate and the increase of compulsory down payment are all negatively related to the changes in real estate index.Suggestions:(1) Applying "closed-loop control" to the interest rate, reserve rate and the mortgage rate or housing provident fund.(2) Guiding the demands in real estate market and adjusting the required ratio of down payment and mortgage when purchasing a second property.(3) Keeping enhancing the government’s adjustments and monitoring.(4) Promoting "Affordable Housing" projects and encouraging the construction of public rental properties.