Measurement Of Price Bubbles Of Commercial Houses Based On State Space Models

Inorder to study price bubbles in real estate industry of Changsha and how worse the price bubble serious degree.It is in order to proposing the solutions to these problems as the measurement results, establish early warning mechanism,preventing The negative effect of bubble.The state space mode has been established to test the price bubble of Changsha.The social survey method and non-intervention studies has been used to collect the index data,summarize foreign and domestic scholars’studies, understand the progress of study.With the soft of Eviews has been used,by state space mode, the various factors affecting the price of commercial houses in Changsha from2001to2011has been analyzed.Kalman filter has been used to estimation all the factors.by which the fundamental value of each year was obtained.By comparing the value with the price of commercial houses of that year, the deviation rate of the price of commercial houses from the fundamental value was finally calculated. Besides, a stationary test was carried out for the deviation rate, by which a conclusion was made that there were bubbles in the prices of commercial houses in Changsha where the bubble level reached9.84%in recent decade.